2027 NFL Mock Draft Shocker: Arch Manning slides as Jeremiah Smith emerges as new No. 1 overall pick

The 2026 college football and NFL seasons are still underway, but that has not stopped analysts from looking ahead to the 2027 NFL Draft. While it’s too early to determine which NFL team will secure the first overall pick or which college prospect will emerge as the top choice, early mock drafts offer a glimpse into how the draft board could shape up next April. Arch Manning has been touted as the top QB prospect ever since he signed for the Texas Longhorns. However, despite completing his first full college season last year with a 10-3 record, he failed to lead Texas to the College Football Playoff.

Texas is 4-1 with Manning as their shotcaller, but their recent loss to the Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry has raised fresh questions about his draft stock. Manning struggled to impress in the high-profile matchup, throwing two interceptions and finishing with a poor completion percentage.

As a result, he is no longer widely viewed as the favourite to be the first overall pick or the top quarterback in the 2027 draft. Several mock drafts project him to fall outside the top spot, although he remains firmly in the conversation for a top-five selection.

JEREMIAH SMITH EMERGES AS A FAVORITE FOR THE 1ST OVERALL PICK

While Manning's stock has taken a hit, Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has emerged as a leading contender for the first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. After three seasons at Ohio State, he could finally declare for the draft.

Smith has continued to make his case with consistently impressive performances. He surpassed the 1,000-receiving-yard mark in each of his first 2 seasons and is well on course to do so in the 2026 season. He already has 916 yards in just 48 catches, averaging 19.1 yards per reception to go with 11 TDs.

In just 35 games for the Buckeyes, he holds the school record in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Widely regarded as one of the best wide receivers in college football, Smith has also emerged as a potential Heisman Trophy contender. His production, athletic ability, and big-play potential make him a compelling candidate to go first overall. No receiver has gone 1 st overall in 31 years.

MOCK DRAFTS REMAIN DIVIDED ON 2ND OVERALL PICK

The race for the number 2 spot in the draft remains far less settled. Some mock drafts project Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore to go second overall, while others favour Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker as the first quarterback selected in the draft. Both prospects have made compelling cases for a place near the top of the board.

Standing at 6’2, Moore was a consensus All-American last season as a sophomore, recording 31 tackles and 5 interceptions. PFF sees him as the 2nd overall pick while ESPN sees him going 4th. Drew Mestemaker's draft stock has been on the rise since moving to Oklahoma State from North Texas. His recent performances have been impressive, which could see him go up on the draft board. He could very well become the first QB taken in the 2027 draft.

Standing at 6’3, 215 pounds, he is blessed with great arm strength and the ability to deliver the ball downfield. Also, he is not shy to make plays with his legs.

So far this season, he has thrown for 1575 yards in five matches, with 13 TD passes and 5 picks. He could go 2 nd or 3 rd in the draft depending upon which team gets the spot and if they are in need of a QB.

EDGE RUSHERS AND OFFENSIVE TACKLE ROUND OUT TOP 4

The fourth overall pick is another position where mock drafts remain divided. Some analysts favour an edge rusher, with Colin Simmons and Dylan Stewart among the names being considered. Others believe an offensive tackle could be the preferred choice, with Jordan Seaton and Trevor Goosby emerging as potential candidates.

Simmons is a 6’3, 245-pound prospect who is in his 3rd season of college football and leads the CFB in sacks with 9.5 so far in just five games, while Stewart stands at 6’5, 245 pounds and has registered 1 sack so far. But has great intangibles, which include his great length and movement.

Seaton, an offensive tackle for LSU, stands at 6’5, 311 pounds. He allowed only seven pressures in the 2025 season while lining up for 328 snaps. He possesses the ability to move in front of rushers and provides stable pass protection. His run game still needs a lot of work.

Longhorns LT Goosby is a 6’7, 325-pound prospect who played 492 snaps in 2025 and allowed 16 pressures and 3 sacks. He offers both pass protection and run-blocking and is capable of providing a full workload.

It will all come down to which team lands the fourth overall pick, and their choice will depend upon their roster needs. A team with an established QB could opt for an offensive tackle for better pass protection. However, a team that needs to strengthen its pass rush would go for an edge rusher like Simmons and Stewart.

ARCH MANNING COULD STILL LAND IN THE TOP FIVE DESPITE HIS DRAFT SLIDE

Despite losing ground in the race for the first overall pick, Manning remains a potential top-five selection. His recent performances may have been concerning, but he still has talent, and long-term potential could still appeal to a team looking for a franchise quarterback.

However, he isn’t the only QB who could stake a claim at the 5th overall spot. Teams are also looking at Oregon's Dante Moore or Notre Dame's CJ Carr, and they could very well get drafted before the Longhorns signal-caller.

With several prospects capable of making a strong case for a top-five selection, the order remains fluid as the college football season progresses.

That leaves the top five wide open beyond Smith's apparent position at the top. Moore, Mestemaker, Simmons, Stewart, Seaton, Goosby, Manning, Dante Moore, and Carr are among the prospects who could make a push for early selections as the season progresses. For now, Jeremiah Smith appears to be the most consistent choice for the first overall pick across mock drafts.

There is still plenty of college football to be played before draft night, and a few standout performances could quickly change the projections. For now, however, the early consensus points to Smith leading the way, with the battle for the remaining top-five spots wide open.