Exit Polls: What state elections mean for next year's big Lok Sabha battle

Assembly elections held in the run-up to Lok Sabha elections in India are keenly watched for signs of changes in voter's mood that could impact the fates of parties and alliances at the national political stage. This time too, as polls are being held in five states, things are no different.

Can Modi bag a third term at the Centre for him and his party, the BJP? Will Congress finally see a change in its fortunes, long mired in relative insignificance in the wake of Modi's sustained popularity? Does INDIA bloc stand any chance at the hustings in the face of the electoral juggernaut of the poll machine that is BJP?

These, and other similar questions have begun doing the rounds like they do whenever an assembly poll closely precedes Lok Sabha elections. But do the trends seen in state results carry over in any way to the national stage?


What state vs national poll trends show
While the ongoing polls are being seen by many as semi-finals before next year's big event, the fact remains that assembly elections are usually not good and reliable pointers to how parties perform at national polls.

History shows that the outcome of these polls may not signficantly impact the results of next year's general election. There are multiple examples to show that voters' preferences are not similar in national and state elections.

In 2018, Congress trumped BJP in three state polls -- Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh -- where the two parties were in direct fights. But a few months later, at the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the grand old party was trounced by BJP which bagged 61 of the 65 Lok Sabha seats on offer in these three states.

Not just at state elections preceding Lok Sabha polls, the Indian voter's preferences can significantly differ even when the two elections are held at the same time. A major example of this was Odisha in 2019 -- when BJD won a fifth term at the assembly with a resounding mandate, but got only 12 of the 21 Lok Sabha seats, losing significant ground to BJP.

When it comes to elections in India, the fact remains that people vote differently in state and national elections. There is no shortage of such examples. In 2019, BJP garnered almost 70% of vote share in the Lok Sabha polls in Himachal Pradesh, while Congress got around 27%. In the assembly polls that followed, BJP's vote share fell to 43%, and Congress emerged winner with 44%.

In Karnataka in 2013, Congress had fared very well in the assembly elections bagging 122 seats against BJP's 40. However, this convincing victory in the state polls had little impact on the following national elections that brought Modi to power. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 17 seats with a vote share of 43.37% while the Congress could get only 9 with 41.2% vote share in the state.

Voters in Karnataka have alternated between the BJP and the Congress in the assembly polls. However, when it comes to Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has been a clear winner -- the saffron party has been the dominant force in the state in national polls.

The cases cited above are just a few isolated and random examples. Many other similar cases show a clear lack of connection between state and national election outcome trends.

Sudden changes in poll discourse
There is another angle to this discussion as well. Till late 2018, Congress seemed to be in a great position to mount a strong challenge to incumbent BJP at the centre in the Lok Sabha polls that were to soon follow. It had given the ruling BJP a tough test in the Gujarat state polls. In Karnataka, it had formed govt with the JDS after keeping BJP at bay. It had also wrested back power in Chhattisgarh and MP, and looked to be in good stead in Rajasthan.

But shortly afterwards, the BJP brought the 10% EWS reservation move and besides, the country was shaken by the attack at Pulwama and later charged by the events at Balakot. The entire national political discourse suddenly changed course and the rest was history -- BJP won resoundingly in 2019 even as Congress fell by the wayside.

There might, however, be one distinct carry-over from these state elections to next year's national election. The ongoing elections are being considered a vote on the popularity, or the lack of it, of the BJP and the Congress and its INDIA alliance. While state polls have not been seen to impact the subsequent Lok Sabha elections in any major way, given the fierce rivalry between the two biggest parties, the results will certainly set the tone of the campaign for the Lok Sabha elections early next year.