Exit polls result 2024: Axis, C-Voter, VMR, CSDS, or Chanakya? Whose predictions were close in 2019 & 2014

Following the end of voting for 18th Lok Sabha elections after seven phases of polling, attention shifts to the exit poll predictions. Voting across 57 constituencies in eight states and Union Territories is taking place in Bihar, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. Various political research agencies will release their forecasts based on surveys conducted with voters. These exit polls aim to gauge public sentiment and predict electoral trends ahead of the official results, which the Election Commission of India will announce on June 4.

Exit Polls Accuracy in 2019, 2014 Lok Sabha Elections

As the anticipation for exit poll results grows, it's important to review the accuracy of past predictions by different agencies.

India Today-Axis My India (2019): Predicted 339-365 seats for NDA and 77-108 for UPA.

India Today–Cicero (2014): Forecasted 272 seats for NDA, 115 for UPA, and 156 for other parties.
News24-Today’s Chanakya (2019): Estimated 350 seats (±14) for NDA and around 95 (±9) for UPA.
News 24-Today’s Chanakya (2014): Predicted 340 seats for NDA, 70 for UPA, and 133 for other parties.
News18-IPSOS (2019): Projected 336 seats for NDA, 82 for UPA, and 124 for other parties.
CNN-IBN-CSDS–Lokniti (2014): Forecasted 276 seats for NDA, 97 for UPA, and 148 for other parties.
Times Now-VMR (2019): Predicted around 306 seats for NDA and 132 for UPA (±3).
Times Now-ORG (2014): Forecasted 249 seats for NDA, 148 for UPA, and 146 for other parties.
India TV-CNX (2019): Estimated 300 seats (±10) for NDA and 120 (±5) for UPA.
CVoter (2019): Predicted 287 seats for NDA, 128 for UPA, and the rest for other parties.
Sudarshan News (2019): Forecasted 305 seats for NDA and 124 for UPA.
ABP News-Nielsen (2014): Predicted 274 seats for NDA, 97 for UPA, and 165 for other parties.
NDTV-Hansa Research (2014): Forecasted 279 seats for NDA, 103 for UPA, and 161 for other parties.

Actual Results vs Accuracy Levels: Comparison

2019 Results: NDA won 353 seats, UPA secured 91 seats. The closest predictions came from India Today-Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya, followed by Times Now-VMR.
2014 Results: NDA won 336 seats, UPA got 66, and other parties secured 147. Most exit polls accurately indicated a strong performance for NDA.