Exit Polls Lok Sabha Elections 2024: What happened in 2019 and 2014 exit polls? How accurate were they?

Exit Polls Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Exit polls that precede the official vote count by the Election Commission of India (ECI) are highly anticipated events. The exit polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be broadcast live on June 1, following the completion of the final voting phase. Voting for the last phase will continue until 6 pm on Saturday, with exit poll results going live after 6:30 pm.

Read: Election Results Live Updates

Political analysts and psephologists meticulously analyze data to predict which party might have an edge in each state. An exit poll is conducted immediately after voting concludes in parliamentary or assembly elections.


The Battle for Power in 2024
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections are a showdown between the BJP-led NDA alliance and the Congress-led INDIA bloc. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's NDA alliance is vying for a third consecutive term, while the INDIA bloc aims to create an upset.

Read: Varanasi Election Result 2024

Historical Exit Polls vs Actual Results

Here's a look at the predictions made in the last three general elections compared to the actual results:

Exit Polls of 2019 Lok Sabha Elections

Polling Agency	NDA	UPA	Others
India Today-Axis My India	352 (+/-13)	93 (+/-15)	82 (+/-13)
News24-Today's Chanakya	350 (+/-14)	95 (+/-9)	97 (+/-11)
News18-IPSOS CNN-IBN IPSOS	336	82	124
Times Now-VMR	306 (+/-3)	132 (+/-3)	104 (+/-3)
India TV-CNX	300 (+/-10)	120 (+/-5)	122 (+/-6)
CVoter	287	128	127
ABP-CSDS	277	130	135
India News-Polstrat	287	128	127

Exit Polls of 2014

Polling Agency	NDA Prediction	UPA Prediction	Others Prediction
CNN-IBN – CSDS–Lokniti	276	97	148
India Today–Cicero	272	115	156
News 24–Chanakya	340	70	133
Times Now–ORG	249	148	146
ABP News–Nielsen	274	97	165
NDTV–Hansa Research	279	103	161

Actual Results of 2014

NDA	UPA	Others
336	66	147
BJP - 282	Congress - 44

Exit Polls of 2009

Polling Agency	UPA Prediction	NDA Prediction	Third Front Prediction	Fourth Front Prediction
CNN-IBN – Dainik Bhaskar	185–205	165–185	110–130	25–35
Star-Nielsen	199	196	100	36
India TV – CVoter	189–201	183–195	105–121

Actual Results of 2009

UPA	NDA	Third Front	Fourth Front
262	159	79	27
Congress - 206	BJP - 116

Exit Polls of 2004

Polling Agency	NDA Prediction	Congress Prediction	Others Prediction
NDTV-AC Nielsen	230-250	190-205	100-120
Aajtak ORG-MARG	248	190	105
StarNews C-Voter	263-275	174-186	86-98

Actual Results of 2004

UPA	NDA	Left Front	Others
208	181	59
Congress - 145	BJP - 138

Read: Delhi Lok Sabha Elections Result

Reflection on Past Predictions

In 2014, most exit polls accurately captured the nation's pulse, predicting a strong performance for the BJP-led NDA, which won a majority with 282 seats. In contrast, in 2009, the UPA outperformed exit poll predictions, securing 262 seats against the highest forecast of 205. Similarly, in 2004, exit polls failed to predict the NDA's loss to the UPA.

As the 2024 exit polls unfold, their accuracy and the final results will once again be a focal point of political discourse and analysis.

Accuracy of Exit Polls

Exit polls gauge public sentiment but their accuracy hinges on factors like sample size, geographic coverage, and voter candidness. While cluster voting patterns can be revealing, some voters may conceal their true preferences, leading to potential inaccuracies. Historically, exit polls have been hit or miss.

What law says?
By law, as outlined in Section 126A of the Representation of the People's Act, 1951, news channels and pollsters can only release exit poll numbers after the final phase of voting is complete. Violation of this provision can result in a prison term of up to two years, a fine, or both.