BJP does it again! Takes saffron wave into Mamata’s bastion on back of winning streak

If the current 2026 trends hold, what’s emerging is not just a BJP lead in numbers, but a broader political shift that has been building state by state over the last year and a half — through upsets, broken strongholds, and contests where the expected script simply didn’t play out.

At this stage, the BJP is leading in 194 seats, while the Trinamool Congress is ahead in 88, with smaller parties trailing far behind.

Also Read: Down but not out! BJP set to paint another state in saffron as Bengal’s ‘Didi’ shown the door

Haryana 2024 shocker

Haryana delivered one of the earliest and most dramatic reversals of the cycle.

Going into counting day, nearly every major exit poll leaned towards Congress, with some even projecting a comfortable majority. The narrative of a change in guard had already taken hold. But as results came in, the picture flipped sharply.

The BJP secured a third straight term with 48 seats, turning what looked like a Congress advantage into a decisive comeback. It was a momentum reversal that upended expectations.

Inside Congress, early discussions around government formation quickly gave way to uncertainty as the numbers tightened and then slipped away.

The contest wasn’t decided by one surge, but by a steady consolidation. The BJP built a broad non-Jat coalition, while Congress struggled with strong but uneven vote conversion — a familiar Haryana pattern where margins matter more than vote share.

A key factor was the positioning of Nayab Singh Saini as a prominent OBC face, which helped the BJP absorb rural dissatisfaction and soften anti-incumbency in several regions.

Final tally: BJP 48, Congress 37 — a gap defined more by efficiency than raw support.

Also Read: The fall of ‘Didi’: How Mamata Banerjee’s Bengal fortress began to crumble

But the contest’s real drama extended beyond the top two.

Dushyant Chautala’s JJP suffered a sharp collapse, finishing fifth in his own seat of Uchana Kalan. Abhay Singh Chautala of INLD also lost, marking setbacks for regional forces that once shaped Haryana’s balance.

Even the ruling BJP wasn’t untouched — eight sitting ministers, including Speaker Gian Chand Gupta, lost their seats, underlining how competitive the ground battle was.

There were also standout individual wins. Vinesh Phogat secured a high-profile victory for Congress in Julana, while Bhupinder Singh Hooda posted a commanding win in Garhi Sampla-Kiloi by over 71,000 votes.

Odisha 2024 and a system that slowly unravelled

Odisha was less a sudden shock and more a gradual political unravelling that became clear only at counting.

The BJP won 78 seats in the 147-member Assembly, ending Naveen Patnaik’s 24-year rule. The significance lay not just in the defeat, but in the scale of the shift against one of India’s most stable political leaders.

The BJD’s support weakened across multiple regions at once — coastal belts, tribal areas, and urban centres — suggesting a coordinated erosion rather than a localised backlash.

A key narrative shift worked against the ruling party. The BJP successfully raised questions around an increasingly centralised administrative setup, particularly the influence of V.K. Pandian, feeding into concerns over identity and control.

By counting day, a two-decade political system had effectively been replaced within a single cycle.

Patnaik contested from two seats for the first time — Hinjili and Kantabanji. He narrowly retained Hinjili by 4,600 votes, a sharp drop from earlier margins, but lost Kantabanji to the BJP’s Laxman Bag by over 16,000 votes.

The result marked the symbolic end of what was long called the “Naveen era.”

Three fault lines shaped the outcome.

First, the “Odia Asmita” campaign, which framed V.K. Pandian as an outsider and turned identity into a central issue.

Second, concerns around the Jagannath Temple’s Ratna Bhandar, which became a symbol of alleged administrative opacity.

Third, organisational fatigue in the BJD structure, which weakened its hold across traditional strongholds.

Post-results, the BJP formed a government under Mohan Charan Majhi, sworn in on June 12, 2024. Shortly after, V.K. Pandian exited active politics, closing the chapter on the party’s inner-circle governance model.

Maharashtra’s 2024 alliance arithmetic

Maharashtra delivered one of the most structurally significant results of the cycle.

The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance won 235 of 288 seats, with the BJP alone securing 132. On paper, it was a landslide. Underneath, it was a story of opposition fragmentation.

The splits in Shiv Sena and NCP weakened the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s ability to translate votes into seats. Meanwhile, the Mahayuti maintained a more coordinated front, especially in rural regions and western Maharashtra.

A major driver was welfare politics, particularly cash-transfer schemes for women voters, which boosted turnout in rural belts and offset opposition messaging on unemployment and farm distress.

The result restored Devendra Fadnavis to a central position in state politics and reinforced a broader trend: alliance cohesion was now more decisive than vote share.

A 27-year cycle breaks in Delhi in 2025

Delhi marked one of the most symbolic urban reversals in recent memory.

The BJP won 48 of 70 seats, ending a 27-year gap in power in the capital and displacing the Aam Aadmi Party after two strong terms.

The shift was driven by a rapid change in urban mood. Welfare schemes and free utilities, long central to AAP’s appeal, were no longer sufficient to hold together a diverse voter base spanning middle-class neighbourhoods and informal settlements.

Key constituencies swung decisively, including high-profile defeats that reshaped the political narrative.

The BJP focused its campaign on civic dissatisfaction — pollution, infrastructure fatigue, and governance issues — rather than ideology.

The result was reinforced by major setbacks for AAP leadership, including Arvind Kejriwal losing New Delhi and Manish Sisodia failing to retain his seat.

Following the result, Rekha Gupta of Shalimar Bagh became Chief Minister, marking a generational and gender milestone in Delhi politics. The new administration immediately prioritised infrastructure investment and urban cleanup targets, signalling a sharp policy reset.

For AAP, the outcome marked a turning point, pushing the party into a phase of reassessment after losing both power and its core urban strongholds.