Why the BJP failed to break the 38-year-old jinx in Karnataka

Incumbents in Karnataka are jinxed. The state has never voted an incumbent party to power since 1985. That tradition continues with the Congress leading over the BJP in the 2023 state election results. But there was more to the BJP's defeat in Karnataka than the incumbency jinx.

The party decided to make the “double engine” governance as the main poll plank but was unable to persuade the voters despite significant growth during its government's tenure which gave a big push to infrastructure projects that were stalled under the Congress. The completion of the Bidar-Kalburgi railway line, the initiation of the Bengaluru suburban railway project, the completion of the long-pending Bengaluru-Mysuru Highway, the expansion of the 411-km Bidar-Kalaburgi-Bellari Highway and the construction of more than 6,000 kilometres of rural roads are some of the major projects accomplished by the BJP government.

Though the BJP has never been able to hit the 113-seat mark to get a clear majority in the state, it is stuck below the 70-seat mark in the results so far today which indicates its campaign did not yield the desired results..


Below are the factors that seem to have worked against the BJP in Karnataka:

The Lingayat factor
The Lingayat community is a prominent Hindu sect in Karnataka, accounting for over 17% of the state's population. The community has historically been a significant vote bank in Karnataka politics and has played a crucial role in deciding the outcome of several elections. In fact, the Lingayats had been the BJP's biggest pillar of support in the state,

But this time they were miffed with the party for forcing BS Yediyurappa to step down as the chief minister and denying tickets to former CM Jagadish Shettar and former deputy CM Laxman Savadi who joined the Congress. Yediyurappa's fourth term as the CM, which began in July 2019 after several MLAs from the ruling JD(S)-Congress alliance resigned from the government. came to a halt two years later when he was forced to resign in 2021 due to internal party pressures. Basavaraj Bommai, who is also from the Lingayat community, was put in his place as the CM. But Bommai utterly lacks the pull Yediyurappa enjoys in the Lingayat community. Yediyurappa has been a prominent face of the community since the early 1980s and has played a crucial role in consolidating the Lingayat vote in favor of the BJP.

By the time the BJP realised it could not do without Yediurappa and brought him back in a few months before the elections, the damage was already done. Though he did not contest in the assembly polls, his son BY Vijayendra fought from the traditional Shikaripur seat, which he has represented eight times. But it seems the Lingayat community had already alienated from the BJP and was not willing to support the party again.

Defections
As if the Yediurappa factor was not enough, the BJP faced another challenge on the Lingayat front right before the election. After it denied tickets to two tall Lingayat leaders, they left the party to join the Congress.

First it was former deputy CM Laxman Savadi and soon after former CM and six-time Hubballi-Dharwad Central MLA Jagadish Shettar. Both were prominent Lingayat faces of the BJP. They said the BJP humiliated them. Such statements must have gained them sympathy in their community. Hinting at a conspiracy to throw him out of the party, Shettar claimed that only two or three people were taking decisions in the BJP.

To what extent their defection benefited the Congress remains to be seen, but they sure put a big dent in the BJP's image. Besides their impact on the BJP's Lingayat vote bank, the defections also created the impression that the party had severe internal problems and was unable to keep its flock together. The Congress bagging these tall leaders certainly raised the party's stock among the voters as it suggested that the Congress was the party with bright chances of winning because senior leaders from the BJP were joining it.

The Nandini-Amul controversy
The Congress, which refrained from raising national issues during its poll campaign, had smartly crafted its local-versus-national strategy by fuelling the Nandini-Amul controversy in the run-up to the elections. It's claim that Amul was going to gobble up the local milk cooperative Nandini had deep traction in the state, especially among the dairy farmers. While this helped the Congress build its whole campaign around local issues, the BJP got painted as a party controlled by the outsiders. The BJP could not raise any local issues and, due to the lack of tall local leaders, the party relied heavily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's charishma. In the Congress, Rahul Gandhi kept a low profile. The Congress was able to present itself as a party focused on local issues.

Dying down of communal issues
Polarising topics such as the ban on hijab in classrooms, halal meat, and Azaan over loudspeakers had stirred state politics last year and later communal fights over a couple of political murders had given the impression that the assembly polls would be fought on these issues. As if it were a precursor to polls, the BJP government too went on to pass anti-conversion and anti-cow slaughter bills. The highlights of the BJP's manifesto were the promise to implement the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC). It also scrapped the 4% quota for Muslims in the hope of consolidating Hindu votes.

However, the communal rhetoric died down as the campaign took off due to the Congress not reacting to sentimental issues. Sensing this, the BJP too decided to ride its campaign on the double-engine governance. It did try to turn the Congress' promise to ban Bajrang Dal into a poll issue, but the Congress made major efforts to prevent the issue from flaring up and benefiting the BJP.

A BJP leader told TOI that under a well-considered strategy for the last leg of its election campaign, the BJP had decided to focus on highlighting the benefits of the double-engine government and development they had achieved.

However, the results today suggest that the BJP was not able to convince the voters that it deserved a second term.

(WIth inputs from TOI)