Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav or Prashant Kishor — Who is leading the CM race in Bihar? Survey reveals changing trends

Bihar is bracing for a high-stakes assembly election in 2025, and the key question on everyone’s mind is who will occupy the chief minister’s chair.

The contest is expected to be triangular, with the NDA, the INDIA bloc, and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party all vying for power.

A recent C-Voter survey, released on October 2, offers insights into voter preferences for the next Chief Minister of Bihar, hinting at a dynamic and competitive race.


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Tejashwi Yadav retains lead, but support dips slightly

According to the C-Voter survey, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and former Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav remains the most preferred candidate for the CM post.

Around 35% of respondents chose him as their top pick, though this represents a decline of 5 percentage points since February, reflecting a subtle shift in voter sentiment.

Tejashwi, who was deputy chief minister under the Nitish Kumar-led Mahagathbandhan government, continues to hold significant appeal, particularly among RJD loyalists and youth voters.

Prashant Kishor emerges as dark horse in CM race

The survey also indicates a notable rise in support for Prashant Kishor, the political strategist-turned-politician.

His popularity as a preferred CM candidate has jumped to 23% in the latest C-Voter poll, up from 21% in August, 18% in July, and 14% in February.

Kishor’s growing traction suggests that voters are increasingly open to alternatives beyond the traditional political heavyweights, positioning him as a potential game-changer in Bihar’s electoral landscape.

Nitish Kumar’s popularity fluctuates amid voter uncertainty

Incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar appears to be losing ground in voter preference. Currently, 16% of respondents in the C-Voter survey identified him as their choice for the next CM, placing him third behind Tejashwi and Kishor.

The survey shows a seesaw pattern in Nitish’s support over the year: 18% in February, falling to 15% in April, rising to 18% in early June, dropping to 14% in mid-August, and slightly recovering to 16% in late September.

Analysts suggest that this fluctuating support reflects both voter fatigue and the competitive pressures from emerging contenders like Kishor.

Poll dates and election preparations

The Election Commission of India (ECI) announced the schedule for the Bihar legislative assembly elections on on October 6. The state will vote in two phases -- November 6 and November 11, and the results will be out on November 14.

The term of the 243-member state assembly ends on November 22.

Political parties had urged the ECI to hold elections immediately after Chhath Puja, celebrated at the end of October, to enable maximum voter participation, as many residents working outside Bihar return home for the festival.

JD(U) Bihar president Umesh Singh Kushwaha said, “We have urged the ECI to conduct elections in a single phase and just right after Chhath Puja so that people living outside the state can also cast their vote.” BJP Bihar chief Dilip Jaiswal added, “We have also called for marches of paramilitary forces in backward areas to make sure people are at ease.”

In preparation for the elections, the ECI published the final electoral rolls following the Special Intensive Revision (SIR). The final list contains 7.42 crore voters, after 47 lakh ineligible voters were removed and over 21 lakh eligible voters were added.

With polling dates approaching and voter preferences showing unexpected shifts, the race for Bihar’s next chief minister promises to be fiercely contested, and political observers are watching closely to see whether experience, emerging popularity, or strategic campaigning will ultimately decide the outcome.