Fashion doesn't care for data predictions, gut determines new trends

Fashion designers still prefer working with their gut than depending on the data.

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In an increasingly data-driven world, do instinct or numbers take the final call?
Data has been called the new oil for businesses. When analysed correctly, it can be a game-changer for businesses. It offers consumer insights, points to growing demand sectors and could help predict user trends. But is that necessarily true for all industries or are some industries still driven largely by intuition?

At a recent fashion panel in the city, designer Anita Dongre mentioned that judging the right time to launch a product or an idea is still a matter of gut. “For the repeats that we do, it’s data but for anything new, it has to be gut.”

“It’s actually so subtle. You can’t be too ahead. There are often ideas that I’ve introduced that haven’t been accepted, they’ve flopped and then two years later, everybody suddenly wants them. That’s the thing (about fashion). You can’t be too early, you can’t be too late. You have to decide when is the right time because you also have to wait for that idea to become a trend and acceptable to all.”


With stores in India and New York, multiple clothing brands and a global celebrity following, fashion designer Anita Dongre is a feminist powerhouse in a male-dominated industry.
With stores in India and New York, multiple clothing brands and a global celebrity following, fashion designer Anita Dongre is a feminist powerhouse in a male-dominated industry.

Asked how much was driven by data and how much by gut, Dongre said, “ I think it’s 80% gut. I still work with (my) gut.

Chasing the numbers
For Manish Taneja, co-founder and CEO of Purplle.com - an online beauty and personal care company, the equation is reversed. The company, which launches on average 150 products a month, uses data to predict which of its products in which categories will be the most popular.
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“Sometimes we fail to quantify the market size that we’re going after or we try to be a little easy on ourselves but more often than not, I think if it goes by data, in our case at least, we can predict very, very accurately the sales that we expect from a shampoo or a cream or a lotion or a night serum.”

Makeup, on the other hand, tends to be a little tougher to predict, said Taneja. “Predicting colors that would do well this season in India is a tough one and I think that’s where it’s probably 80% data - 20% gut.”

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Striking a Balance
Devangi Parekh, director of boutique fashion chain Aza Fashions, likes to strike a balance between both.
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“Data is extremely important in understanding each of the cities - what is the demand there, adding products in which categories etc. But when it comes to trends like is ruffles going to be huge, will neon colours be trending, are fanny packs back etc, that’s a timing thing; you have to be ahead of the curve but not too ahead. It’s definitely a gut thing at the end of the day.”

Parekh believes that while listening to the data is good, gut is what pushes companies to the next level. “If it was just data, then you would just stay where you are; you wouldn’t be the next big thing. To get to the next big thing, a little bit of gut is needed.”
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