Bihar 2025 Elections: Nitish Kumar's last test, freebies, alliance twists, caste math & PK factor

Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar on Monday described the 2025 Bihar assembly polls as the "mother of all elections," calling them unique in several ways. ET lists the factors that will shape these elections:

Nitish's Moment Now
For over two decades, Nitish Kumar has been the central force in Bihar politics. The upcoming election, likely his last, will test whether his appeal among women and EBC voters can deliver for the NDA once again. Despite shifting alliances over the years, Nitish has remained the fulcrum of every political equation. In 2025, he faces mounting anti-incumbency against his MLAs, corruption allegations against his ministers, and a strong challenge from Tejashwi Yadav and a resurgent Congress.


Chirag, Sahni Hold the Key
In 2020, LJP leader Chirag Paswan broke away from the NDA and contested against the JD(U), cutting its tally to 43 seats. This time, the NDA finds relief as LJP (Ram Vilas) stays in the alliance and will contest jointly. The NDA is banking on Chirag's 5% Paswan vote base, which could be crucial.

VIP leader Mukesh Sahni, who joined the NDA before the 2020 polls and won four seats, is now with the INDIA bloc, where seat talks are underway. The alliance hopes to tap his Nishad community support, crucial in parts of Mithilanchal, Seemanchal, and Champaran.

Free Flow of Freebies
This is among the first elections in Bihar where the Nitish Kumar-led NDA government has leaned heavily on freebies and cash transfers, a departure from Kumar's usual approach of post-poll delivery on promises. On Monday, just before the model code of conduct took effect, he transferred ₹10,000 each to 21 lakh women under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana.

By Monday, the state government had transferred ₹10,000 each to 1.21 crore women, amounting to ₹12,100 crore. A schedule for another 29 lakh beneficiaries has been released, though further transfers will require EC approval. Pensions were raised from ₹400 to ₹1,100 per month, and honorariums for several government workers increased. About 16 lakh Shram Card holders received ₹5,000 each for uniforms, while 2 lakh graduates got the first instalment of ₹1,000 per month.

The PK Factor
After many years, Bihar is witnessing a new challenger who has become the talk of the town. Election strategist Prashant Kishor launched his new party Jan Suraaj and has been campaigning in the state for three years. His corruption allegations against the state ministers are being discussed everywhere in the state, and his presence has made both the ruling and opposition alliance cautious. However, it is yet to be seen whether he can convert these discussions into votes.