How the Iran war exposed cracks in the US-Israel partnership

Donald Trump's patience with Benjamin Netanyahu is all but exhausted. Trump is deeply frustrated and resentful of Netanyahu for selling him a bill of goods on Iran that's turning out to be the worst purchase of his political life. Up there in the category of George W Bush's Iraq War.

Trump can't get out soon enough and Bibi doesn't want to, which makes for an untenable situation. Thus, apocalyptic threats from POTUS against Iran one day and visions of diplomacy the next. The cycle has repeated so many times, the world doesn't take the tiresome tirades and climbdowns seriously any more. No one can eat that many TACOs.

Iran's hardliners, meanwhile, grow more confident with each cycle, raising the stakes for their neighbours. Their most powerful weapons: Strait of Hormuz, and time. They know Trump doesn't want military escalation - domestic political costs would be too high with no guarantee of success on the ground. They also know the Gulf countries are ripe for compromise, mortally afraid of attacks on their oil infrastructure and way of life.


Trump's frustration is playing out in real time. He knows he has lost control of the war. And Netanyahu knows he has essentially lost Trump and is in the process of losing America. No amount of social media manipulation can turn the clock back. Trump may still help Israel and the Jewish people - but for his own reasons. Marco Rubio's decision to deny a visa to anyone who foments hatred against Israel and his vow to 'dismantle' the International Criminal Court (ICC) are examples.

The immutable US-Israel relationship is showing signs of severe strain, even implosion, as US politics gets reshaped and old assumptions die. Netanyahu can take credit for shocking Americans out of their stupor. 60% of Americans now have a negative view of Israel and the PM. The opprobrium is bipartisan and driven by young voters who have steadily grown more sympathetic to Palestinians, thanks to Bibi's scorched earth tactics in Gaza.

A new Economist/YouGov poll this week showed that 49% of Americans agreed that Netanyahu should be arrested for war crimes based on the ICC warrant issued in November 2024, a call that got NYC mayor Zohran Mamdani international attention.

Last week, Trump met Netanyahu for the eighth time since 2025, but only the first since the US-Israel war on Iran was launched as a quick fix to an old problem. Five months later, Trump knows better, but finds himself (quag)mired. He has yelled at Bibi in private for playing him, and ignored his calls.

Bibi has been trying for a face-to-face since April. But the White House held off. He finally got one after Lindsey Graham's funeral for which many 'warriors' were in attendance. Armed with 'intelligence' on Iran's attempts to build nuclear facilities at Kuh-e Kolang (Pickaxe Mountain), Netanyahu argued for escalating the war. He got some truth-telling instead from a president desperate for an exit.

'I don't need Bibi to tell me that. Bibi is telling me because he wants me to stay involved', Trump said bluntly on Fox. J D Vance has become the public vent for the regime's anger. Vance has criticised Israel, Netanyahu and his virulent cabinet colleagues in language that would have been unimaginable from a US politician two years ago.

But Netanyahu, a self-declared US expert, continues have faith in his ability to influence US policy. In 2001, Bibi was secretly recorded telling Israeli settlers, 'I know what America is. America is something that can be easily moved, moved in the right direction. They won't get in our way.' He also said he would 'never allow a Palestinian state'.

Netanyahu's confidence wasn't misplaced. It rested on the awesome power of the pro-Israel lobby, something that many in India want desperately to emulate but don't have the bandwidth, discipline or organisation to build. Led by the formidable American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) with a membership of 6.5 mn, Israel's lobbying complex has a presence in every Congressional district, and a voice in the making of every relevant policy. AIPAC is aided by the Anti-Defamation League and other pro-Israel groups. Christian Zionist groups such as Christians United for Israel bring up the rear, making the enterprise difficult for US politicians to ignore.

But the fortress is being breached by young leftists in the Democratic Party and MAGA isolationists among Republicans. Netanyahu should blame himself for the state of affairs. The question is whether Trump can do what every US president since Harry Truman has tried but failed - change US policy on Israel.

P.S. Some in New Delhi should note that Bibi cited his friendship with Narendra Modi as a definite sign Israel was not isolated.