Donald Trump-Republicans or Democrats -- Who will win US Midterm elections 2026? Here's what survey polls say with 10 days to go

US midterm elections 2026 early voting has commenced even as the main polling day is scheduled for November 3. With barely 10 days to go for the first result of the election, Americans are curious to know who will the crucial midterm elections. A number of polls are showing that Democrats may gain control over the House of the Representatives but Republicans are fighting it all for the upper chamber of the US Congress -- the Senate.

Silver Bulletin's forecast predicted that Democrats have a mind-boggling 95 per cent probability of wining the House of Representatives. However, that percentage falls to 76 per cent for the Senate. Other poll trackers such as RealClearPolling, Decision Desk HQ, VoteHub have predicted tough fight for Senate where Republicans have a majority of 53-47 against Democrats, NewsWeek reported.

Out of 435 seats in the House of Representatives, Republicans have 218 seats, Democrats have 214, Independents have 1 and there are two vacancies.


With the November midterm elections fast approaching and to flip the scenario in favour of Republicans, President Donald Trump is throwing an array of costly and politically fraught solutions at one stubborn problem: the price of diesel.

His administration has offered billions of dollars to farmers, relaxed rules for truckers, eased sanctions on Russian fuel and pressured European allies to release emergency stocks. Yet diesel prices rose again last week, leaving Trump spending political and financial capital without delivering the relief his party wants as voters go to the polls.

Republicans are defending narrow majorities in Congress, and high costs are a major concern for voters. Nearly 80 per cent of Americans blame Trump for higher costs, according to an October Reuters/Ipsos poll.

US diesel prices rose nearly 10 cents a gallon in the latest week to an average of $6.28, reversing two weeks of declines and remaining near record highs, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The political pressure is particularly acute in traditionally Republican Farm Belt states like Iowa and Kansas, where rising fuel and fertilizer costs, trade disruptions and weak farm economics have fueled discontent among some of Trump's core supporters.

Trump has promoted his diesel measures at campaign rallies across the region. He signed an executive order onstage in Nebraska allowing red-dyed diesel to be used in highway vehicles and announced $8 billion in new farm aid during a rally in Kansas on Monday.

The measures illustrate the trade-offs Trump is accepting in pursuit of near-term relief. The new aid adds fresh strain on federal spending, while the Russian fuel move risks helping Moscow finance its war in Ukraine. Pressure on European allies to release emergency stocks, backed by a threat to restrict US diesel exports, has created diplomatic friction.

One of Trump's most direct attempts to lower diesel costs has struggled to gain traction. Trump signed an executive order this month allowing truckers to use red-dyed diesel, typically intended for off-road use such as farm equipment, for highway driving while temporarily avoiding certain federal tax reporting and record-keeping requirements.

But the IRS has not eliminated the federal diesel tax, instead temporarily waiving related reporting requirements and penalties through year-end, leaving uncertainty for truck stops and fuel sellers.