Brazil Presidential Election run off: Who is winning Donald Trump's ally Flavio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva whom Barack Obama once called 'world's most popular politician'?

Brazil is witnessing Presidential run off between leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump. Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva remain about even heading to Sunday's election runoff, a CNT/MDA poll showed on Saturday. The right-wing senator, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 46.3 per cent of the vote compared with 45% for the leftist Lula, according to the poll. Last week, a poll showed Bolsonaro leading Lula 46.8 per cent to 45.9 per cent.

MDA surveyed 2,032 people from October 21 to October 23. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points.

Lula, who at 80 is one of the world's oldest heads of state, is Brazil's 35th and 39th president, having served from 2003-2010 and again since 2023. Bolsonaro, 45, aims to return his family name to power while his father serves time for attempting a coup to prevent the end of his 2019-2022 presidency.


The younger Bolsonaro bested Lula by more than 2.2 million votes in this month's first round, but neither won an outright majority, setting up Sunday's runoff. Bolsonaro had 47 per cent of the votes to Lula's 45 per cent, and surveys show the race remains tight as voters return to the polls.


Flavio Bolsonaro

Senator Bolsonaro began his political career at 21, when he became Rio's youngest elected state lawmaker. With former President Jair Bolsonaro barred from running as he serves a 27-year sentence under house detention, his eldest son has largely embraced his father's ultra-conservative agenda while trying to moderate his communication style to attract centrist voters.

His hard-line security policies have been a pillar of his campaign, and polls show these proposals are popular. The senator has pledged to fight criminal groups by building El Salvador-style megaprisons, to follow the Trump administration's lead by designating transnational gangs as terrorist organizations and to try defendants as young as 16 as adults.

Brazil plays a vital role in mitigating global warming by protecting the Amazon rainforest, but deforestation hit a record high during Bolsonaro's presidency, and his son has likewise denied human-caused climate change, committing only to stopping illegal deforestation.

Sen. Bolsonaro's admission that he accepted millions of dollars from disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro to produce a film on his father's life has cast a shadow over his campaign. He is under investigation for corruption, money laundering and tax evasion in connection with the case.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

Lula, who got his start as a union worker, losing a pinky finger in a factory accident at 19, inspired cult-like devotion during his first and second terms in office as Brazil's economy expanded with the help of a commodities boom and direct cash assistance that lifted millions of Brazilians out of poverty. He later spent more than a year in prison on corruption convictions that were eventually annulled before winning a third term in 2022.

Former U.S. President Barack Obama once called Lula “the world's most popular politician,” but his approval ratings have fallen as low as 24 per cent this term as voters raise concerns about crime and the cost of living. He's responded with promises to share the benefits from extracting Brazil's rare minerals and other resources and has increased payments through his flagship Bolsa Familia program by 15 per cent.


Other steps Lula has taken to shore up support before the runoff include cutting fuel taxes, pardoning the government debts of 3.6 million small businesses, moving to block cellphone signals around prisons, and proposing to boost welfare payments to university students.

And with just days to go before this vote, Brazil's Senate approved rules backed by Lula's administration to reduce the maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours while enshrining two rest days without a salary cut.