Tracking pulses: Low kharif sowing sparks supply concerns; how big is the risk?

The area under pulses (kharif) in the country has fallen by over 7% year-on-year to just over 84 lakh hectares as of July 24, 2026, due to uneven and delayed southwest monsoon rains. A week ago, acreage stood at 69 lakh hectares compared to 81 lakh hectares during the same period last year. While there is a slight recovery, concerns still remain about production, increased dependence on imports, and high prices. However, industry experts said it is still too early to assess the full impact of the sowing shortfall.

As of July 24, government data showed lower sowing across major kharif pulses. Tur (aahar) was sown in just over 31 lakh hectares, over 4% lower compared to the same period a year ago. Moong acreage declined over 4% to over 31 lakh hectares, while urad sowing fell over 1% to over 18 lakh hectares (see chart).

The main cause for this decline is late and irregular monsoon rainfall, particularly in key pulse-growing regions. According to the data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), July rainfall was normal at 215.5 mm versus 215 mm, but monsoon rains from June 1-July 24 were still 16.1% below normal. East and Northeast India had the biggest seasonal deficit at 31.9%, followed by South Peninsular India at 26.8%.

The immediate concern is whether the lower acreage will lead to a notable shortfall in production. India relies on imports to close the gap between domestic pulse production and consumption, making the performance of monsoon critical for both domestic supply and pricing. As per the government data, the country imports 6-6.7 million tonnes of pulses annually—18-20% of its consumption—by spending around $3.63 billion to meet the domestic shortfall.

‘Too early to assess impact’
S. Mahendra Dev, Chairman of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, said the impact of weak monsoon conditions on pulse production should not be significant. Speaking to The Economic Times Digital on the sidelines of a private event on agriculture in Delhi on July 23, Dev said the government was not seeing any major impact so far and had sufficient stocks to deal with any potential supply shortfall.

He said the Agriculture Ministry has already adopted a small-cluster approach to address emerging challenges and has prepared contingency plans for districts likely to be affected.

However, the industry remains cautious. Bimal Kothari, Chairman of the India Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA), warned that inadequate rainfall in key growing regions of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh and a lack of follow-up showers could have a significant impact on yields, though rainfall had improved in recent weeks.

“It is very premature to predict what is going to happen. But keeping in mind the strong El Niño conditions and the current weather pattern, if rainfall remains scanty in the planting areas, we could see a huge impact on production,” Kothari said.

According to him, pulse sowing is down but has improved. However, he stressed that sowing alone would not determine the final production outcome. “If there are no follow-up rains, then definitely there could be a concern. The weather forecasts suggest that August and September could be difficult in terms of rainfall. If that happens, the scenario could change,” he said.

Late sowing could still help narrow the potential production gap, Kothari said, although yields could suffer if rainfall remains inadequate during the crop growth period.

Despite the fall in acreage, Kothari said there was no major supply concern for most pulses as of now, with urad being the main exception. “Except for urad, prices of most pulses are either below MSP or close to MSP. Urad prices have risen by around 10-15% over MSP, but it is not a pan-India mass-consumption product,” he said.

Kothari said the government’s decision to allow free imports of pulses until March 31, 2027, would help maintain adequate supplies. Production in major pulse-producing countries is also expected to be good, allowing India to import significant quantities if required.

“As of now, supply is comfortable and prices are within a reasonable range. In fact, prices have come down since April. I don’t see any major issues this year,” he said.

He also pointed to government buffer stocks as an important cushion against any supply disruption, saying the government has more than 40 lakh tonnes of pulses in stock and can intervene if prices rise or supplies tighten.

Kothari also urged the government to consider opening additional import origins currently restricted under plant quarantine regulations.

Amid the concern over a weak monsoon and the potential impact of El Niño, the Centre is closely monitoring pulse stocks and prices. In a July 23 letter to Agriculture Secretary Atish Chandra, Consumer Affairs Secretary Nidhi Khare urged the government to relax the 9-month disposal norm for pulses procured under the Price Support Scheme (PSS) to help maintain adequate buffer stocks in case of production shortfalls.

An email sent to the Consumer Affairs department hasn’t yet elicited any response.

Full recovery looks difficult
While the acreage could improve if rainfall normalises over the next few weeks, some experts believe that a complete recovery may be difficult due to delayed sowing, which can compress crop cycles and affect productivity.

“From a supply perspective, the eventual production outcome will depend not only on the recovery in acreage but also on rainfall distribution during the crop growth stage,” said Shashi Kant Singh, Partner-Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness at PwC India. He added that any material shortfall in domestic output could increase India’s reliance on imports. In such a situation, domestic prices would be influenced by global availability, import costs, and the effectiveness of government buffer stock operations.

Singh said policy measures should focus on supporting late sowing opportunities through timely access to quality seeds and agricultural advisories while maintaining farmer confidence through effective procurement mechanisms. “A balanced approach combining production support, proactive supply management and calibrated trade measures will be important to ensure market stability and mitigate inflationary pressures,” he added.

Uncertain market outlook
There are also analysts who say that the outlook is already diverging across pulses varieties. Rahul Chauhan, Director of iGrain India, said chana had gained support from improving festival demand, while tur and masur remained largely steady.

Tur, however, has developed a bullish undertone among traders due to concerns over slow kharif sowing and the possibility of lower acreage, Chauhan said. “If sowing does not improve significantly before the planting window closes, production concerns could support prices in the months ahead,” he said.

He said that it won’t be possible to reach an estimate for the actual production until the crop matures. According to him, balanced demand and adequate import availability have kept masur prices steady.

Amid an uncertain outlook, some anticipated that India would raise imports of urad, tur, lentils, and yellow peas. “Total pulse imports could cross 6 million tonnes this year, and the prices have already risen due to tight supply. Urad is up around 18% in the past month due to a weak monsoon, low stocks and delayed shipments from Brazil. Tur, lentils and yellow peas are also firm. They expect the rally to continue. While urad may see limited gains, tur, chana, lentils, and yellow peas could rise another 5-10%,” said a Pune-based analyst.

Currency, import duties add to risks
Pradeep Jindal, Vice President, Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT)-Delhi chapter, said lower rainfall could reduce the production of several commodities by 5-10%, but he argued that currency depreciation and import duties could also have a significant bearing on the prices of pulses.

According to Jindal, who is also a Delhi-based trader of agricultural commodities, “The rupee’s fall from Rs 83 to Rs 96 per dollar has pushed prices up nearly 15% on exchange rate alone—faster than the MSP increase. With expectations of the dollar easing to Rs 94 now uncertain amid Trump administration policies, the rate could even hit Rs 96-100. He warned that a weaker rupee cuts importers’ purchasing power, hurts farmer incentives in exporting countries, and could ultimately reduce production.”

Jindal said the government imposed a 10% duty on lentils and chickpeas and 30% on yellow peas in the past year. Combined with a 15% rise due to the weaker rupee, landed costs have gone up sharply, he added. “While the government has stocks and is releasing them gradually, 22 lakh tonnes can be consumed in 1.5 months if demand stays strong. Stocks offer comfort for this year, but the key risk is 2027. If the rains are delayed further, sowing could shift to October-November. He noted imports can help, but global supply is tight. Australia’s chickpea output may fall to 1.3-1.5 million tonnes compared to 2.2 million two years ago. Of this, only nearly 5 lakh tonnes may come to India, versus 12-13 lakh tonnes earlier. To manage prices, Jindal urged the government to remove duty on chickpeas, cut 30% duty on yellow peas and largely offset the chickpea shortfall,” noted Jindal.

For now, the pulse outlook remains finely balanced. The rabi crop, due for harvest around February 2027, will be key for overall availability. How the monsoon performs in the next few weeks will decide if the current acreage shortfall stays manageable or turns into a bigger supply and price risk for India’s pulse market. Additionally, policymakers need to devise a plan keeping in mind that El Niño would peak during October-December 2026, a crucial period for rabi crops.