Social Security 2027 COLA could be the biggest since 2023: How it compares with the 8.7% increase

Social Security recipients in the US could receive a bigger increase in their monthly benefits in 2027 than they did this year, September forecasts from AARP and The Senior Citizens League pointed to a potential cost of living adjustment of 3.5% to 3.6%. The final figure, however, depends on inflation data and the formula used by the Social Security Administration.

As of September 11, AARP projected a 3.6% increase and The Senior Citizens League estimated a 3.5% adjustment, these were forecasts, not confirmed increases. The SSA is scheduled to announce the official 2027 COLA on October 14 after the September inflation figures release.

Social Security 2027 COLA Forecasts Point to a 3.5%–3.6% Increase

AARP has raised its forecast for the 2027 COLA to 3.6% in September, up from 3.5% the previous month. The Senior Citizens League moved in the opposite direction lowering its estimate to 3.5% from 3.6%.


Although the two groups arrived at slightly different figures. Both projected an increase larger than the 2.8% adjustment Social Security recipients received in 2026.

If the final COLA were to reach 3.6%. It would be the largest annual increase since 2023, when benefits rose by 8.7%. That year’s adjustment was the biggest in four decades. The 2027 figure though is still subject to change before the SSA makes its official announcement.

How Is the Social Security COLA Calculated

The annual adjustment is linked to inflation. It is measured using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. So the SSA compares the average index for July, August and September with the average for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA was determined.

So for the 2027 adjustment the agency will use CPI-W data from the third quarter of 2026 and compare it with the same period in 2025. The resulting percentage change determines the COLA under the statutory formula with the adjustment rounded to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.

That makes the September inflation report particularly important. It provides the final month of data needed for the calculation, allowing the SSA to determine the annual adjustment in October.

The formula is designed to help benefits keep pace with inflation. However it uses the CPI-W rather than an index specifically measuring the spending patterns of older Americans.

How the 2027 Forecast Compares With Recent Increases

Social Security's recent COLAs have varied considerably reflecting changes in inflation over time.

Benefits had increased by 8.7% in 2023. Followed by a 3.2% adjustment in 2024. The increase then fell to 2.5% in 2025 before rising slightly to 2.8% in 2026.

The 2023 adjustment stood out because it was the largest in 40 years but the more recent increases have been much smaller although the September forecasts suggested that beneficiaries could receive a larger adjustment in 2027.