XRP price prediction: Could XRP slide toward $1 if this key support level breaks?

XRP is facing mixed market signals as analysts point to rising circulating supply and limited investment demand, while derivatives traders watch key price levels for signs of a recovery or further losses.

As of Friday, XRP traded around $1.33 and remained approximately 62.5% below its January 2018 peak of $3.55.

Several factors are shaping XRP’s outlook, including supply growth, mixed investment flows and concentrated leveraged positions around $1.40.

XRP Lags Bitcoin, Ethereum and BNB as Supply Increases

Market analyst Omkar Godbole attributed XRP’s underperformance partly to its increasing circulating supply and relatively weak investment demand, according to Bitcoin Sistemi report.

The analysis said XRP was approximately 62.5% below its January 2018 peak of $3.55. While over the same period, Bitcoin had risen 314%, Ethereum had gained 66% and BNB had increased 2,800%.

Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard told CoinDesk that XRP’s circulating supply had increased from 38.7 billion tokens in 2017 to 63.1 billion. That's a rise of approximately 63%. As per the analysis, XRP’s total market capitalization had declined by about 3% over that period.

Tesseract Group Marketing Director Oliver Carding said an increase in circulating supply can reduce the value represented by each token, even when overall market capitalization remains relatively stable.

XRP ETF Flows Show Mixed Investment Demand

Investment demand remains another concern. Approximately $1.8 billion in inflows into XRP funds was reported based on SoSoValue data.

Wincent senior director Paul Howard said interest in XRP investment products remained limited compared with funds tied to Bitcoin and Ethereum. He also argued that Ripple’s focus on cross-border payments and payment infrastructure, rather than areas such as decentralized finance and artificial intelligence, could limit XRP’s investment appeal.

More recent figures showed mixed activity among US spot XRP exchange-traded funds. AMBCrypto reported net outflows of $104,510 over the preceding 24 hours. Franklin-related products recorded $3.64 million in purchases while Bitwise products saw $3.75 million in sales.

Nansen figures show declines in XRP spot trading volume of 53.5%, perpetual futures volume of 44% and active addresses of 10.7%.

XRP Price Analysis: $1.28 Support and $1.49 Resistance

AMBCrypto reported that XRP was trading within a range of $1.28 to $1.57, above a multi-month trendline dating back to July 2025. In that market snapshot, the token had pulled back from $1.42 before rebounding from a weekly low of $1.28.

Technical indicators presented a mixed picture. The moving average convergence divergence, or MACD, was slightly bearish, while the Chaikin Money Flow indicator stood at -0.20 for the XRP/USDT pair on Binance. The report noted that the indicator had formed a double bottom.

Exchange inflows also drew attention. CryptoQuant data cited by AMBCrypto showed whale inflows to Binance reaching 1.669 billion XRP over 30 days, the highest level in seven months. That exceeded the September peak of 1.65 billion tokens.

Transfers to exchanges can increase potential selling pressure, but they do not confirm that the tokens have been sold.

DailyCoin identified $1.39 as a level XRP would need to reclaim before a possible move toward $1.49, where the SuperTrend indicator sat on its four-hour chart. The publication also identified resistance around $1.65 to $1.66 if the token moved back into the $1.39-$1.55 area.

As per AMBCrypto, a sustained breakout from the trading range could bring the previous lower high at $2.3668 into focus. If the $1.28 support level failed, XRP could move toward $1, which is described as the breakout area.