No storm outside, so why is your plane shaking? How climate change could make your next flight bumpier

You board the flight and have planned to read a book or watch a movie in the next 2 hours. You just want to relax and the weather outside is pleasant. So you believe nothing can go wrong. You call your family to say that your plane is about to take off. The next step is ordering coffee. Now you are all set. The flight takes off, and now the seat belt sign is off.

Flight attendant places your coffee on the tray table and you set your phone on it, plug in the earphones and decide to watch the movie you downloaded for the flight. You look outside the window again, the clouds look clear and beautiful.

Suddenly, you see your coffee cup shaking; your phone might fall down and now the aircraft is jolting. Your stomach tightens and you just hold the armrest as tightly as you can; you even fasten your seatbelt and just wait for the turbulence to pass.


You don’t understand what happened; the weather was so clear, you feel it must be the pilot’s fault. But was it?

Many passengers associate turbulence with flying through a storm. However, there are times, when there is some rough air and it arrives without any clouds or warning. Scientists have termed this as clear-air turbulence, and according to some research reports, a warming atmosphere is changing the conditions that produce it.

What does the latest flight turbulence study show?

Research studies published in Scientific Reports evaluated the simulated routes between New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport and London Heathrow.

Here’s what researchers Joon Hee Kim and Jung-Hoon Kim found. They used atmospheric data covering 1979–2022. With some calculations, they built simulations to compare routes to minimise flight time with routes that prioritised avoiding clear-air turbulence.

When they changed the winds, it reduced the fastest simulated round trips by about two minutes over the study period. Planes took longer routes to avoid turbulence. The extra travel time wiped out the benefits and could even make things worse.

Eastbound flights witnessed a different scenario. Following strong tailwinds could save time while bringing aircraft closer to turbulence-prone areas. These were calculated routes using historical atmospheric data, rather than records showing every actual flight becoming longer or rougher.

Why can a plane shake when the sky looks clear?

Air is not something can move altogether and at once. It moves as different speeds and in different directions.

So if there is a rapid change in wind for a short distance, it can cause turbulence. Scientists call it wind shear. As a result, clear-air turbulence often develops near jet streams, the narrow bands of powerful winds high in the atmosphere.

An aircraft can therefore encounter rough conditions far from a visible thunderstorm, and that is one of the reasons you can . The Hong Kong Observatory explains that clear-air turbulence can also develop when strong winds cross mountain ranges.

For passengers, a cloudless view offers little information about those invisible movements.

How is climate change connected to turbulence?

Warming changes temperature patterns in the atmosphere, which can alter the wind shear associated with jet streams.

Earlier University of Reading research examined atmospheric conditions between 1979 and 2020. At a typical point over the North

Atlantic, the estimated annual duration of severe clear-air turbulence rose from 17.7 hours to 27.4 hours, an increase of 55%. Published in 2023, that finding concerns turbulence conditions at an atmospheric location. It does not mean every passenger’s flight became 55% bumpier.

Researchers said the increases were consistent with the expected effects of climate change on upper-atmosphere wind shear. A frightening encounter alone cannot establish that climate change caused it. Individual events require investigation, while long-term studies examine broader changes.

Can airlines avoid the rough air?

It is not that the flight do not wish to avoid the air turbulence. The get the expected and current forecast reports, even the atmospheric data from other aircrafts which help them decide if they need to change the altitude or a route for any specific flight.

The US Federal Aviation Administration that apart from the turbulence forecast, they are trying to make improvements to pilot reporting and information sharing.

These steps are important and the tools are really necessary because the experience of passengers depends both on the how the weather is and how effectively airlines avoid them.

The 2026 study highlights the operational challenge: the route offering the strongest helpful winds may involve greater turbulence exposure. So a better plan must be made considering both the factors.

Avoidance can require additional flying time. The research does not establish how much any resulting cost would change ticket prices.

What should passengers do during turbulence?

If you are ever in such a situation, then the FAA advises to first remain seated and fasten your seatbelts. This should be done even if it is a small jolt. If you do not fasten your seat belts, you could be shaken out of your seats during the turbulence and may get injured. You need to follow the instructions of the crew. You should keep your baggage properly stowed to reduce injury risks.