Significant upside in Nifty beyond 5000-5100 levels unlikely: Hemang Jani, Sharekhan
The current sentiment is so weak that it would not make much sense to buy or accumulate stocks, says Hemang Jani of Sharekhan.
In an interview with ET Now, Hemang Jani, Senior Vice President at Sharekhan, shares his views on the markets. Excerpts:
ET Now: There was a brief rally yesterday, supposedly on the back of a hike in petrol prices. It has kind of stabilised today. What do you think is the near-term mood of the market? Do you think a couple of such moves would enable the market to cross 5000-5100 levels or the global uncertainty and policy paralysis are enough for the markets to be below 4900-5000 levels?
Hemang Jani: Clearly, the mood is not good. This is reflected in the way fund flows are drying up. We believe the downgrading of GDP forecast by various analysts reflects the slowdown in industrial activity in the last three months.
Hence, the possibility of interest rates coming off immediately has also reduced. So, there is no case for a significant upside beyond 5000-5100.
Once there is some kind of a short-term resolution to the European problems, you might see stability in the rupee and the markets.
We have seen 4800 act as an important level. There is huge amount of open interest built up around 4800. So, that may act as an important support at least in the short run.
ET Now: Some believe that, at this point, one could take a contrarian call on some of the cyclical names which have seen a fair amount of selloff. Is that a position you are also taking?
ET Now: What about banks, especially PSU banks? Are you upbeat about their performance from here on?
Hemang Jani: We believe that some of the banks and Bank Nifty are looking quite strong. There may be a quick up move of about 3% to 5%, particularly in Bank Nifty, ICICI Bank and State Bank of India.
Fundamentally, we do not think there is a case for a big upside from current levels as the benefit of the rate cut will take a little longer to reflect in the higher margins. Also, overall core growth will take a while to go up.
ET Now: Are L&T and BHEL from a value or price-to-book perspective looking interesting to you right now?
Hemang Jani: We feel that L&T is relatively better positioned vis-à-vis BHEL. Though we liked the operating performance of BHEL for this quarter, but the slowdown in order flow is quite a concern. Also, the company depends on the power sector and the government is not in a position to do much in terms of reforms or kickstarting the investment cycle.L&T has a much diversified portfolio and has a good exposure to exports. So, the rupee weakening has some kind of a benefit for L&T. In terms of valuations, we find that L&T looks much better. So, for a quick upside of about 5% to 10%, L&T could be looked at.
ET Now: Do you track Adani Power, Adani Enterprises or Adani Port? Have you looked at the kind of valuations they may be trading at and do you like any of the group companies?
Hemang Jani: We do not have any of these stocks under our coverage. But we believe that the fall in the stock prices has some relation with some corporate governance issues, particularly with respect to coal mining in Bangalore. But, subsequently, the company has denied it.
Also, there are concerns that the absolute debt level at which some of the companies, particularly Adani Enterprise, is operating is pretty high at about Rs 4000 to 4500 crore. In an environment where the interest rates are not likely to fall, there might be some issues.
Also, they had slowed down their trading desk of coal because of wild fluctuations in the currency. Due to these concerns, there has been some selling by institutional investors. But we believe that at current levels it might provide some trading opportunity of about 10% to 15%.
ET Now: What you would be advising your clients to do? Markets are neither here nor there, because the expectations of a fall are as high as an expectation of a rise. Do you think it is a good time to start portfolio building?
Hemang Jani: The current sentiment is so weak that it would not make much sense to buy or accumulate stocks.
We are going to see an increase in volatility over the next two to three weeks as global uncertainties continue. So, it makes sense to buy this volatility by buying some call options and put options for next month.
We are recommending clients to buy a 4900 call of next month and 4700 put. So, buying into a straddle would make a lot of sense, because if there is volatility on either side, you stand to benefit.
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