Rupee may fall to 56.75-57.20 levels: Ashok Gautam, Axis Bank
Rupee has hit a lifetime low today. If it closes above that, probably there is very much room open for 56.75 on the first strike and beyond that, maybe 57.20.
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| In an interview with ET Now, Ashok Gautam, Sr VP & Head-Global Markets, Treasury, Axis Bank, talks about the rupee depreciation and what can be expected in coming times. Excerpts:
ET Now: The rupee is underperforming many other currencies. How do you look at the rupee now?
Ashok Gautam: The rupee has convincingly breached the level which we maintain for a long time at 56.20. It has hit a lifetime low today. If it closes above that, probably There is very much room open for 56.75 on the first strike and beyond that, maybe 57.20.
ET Now: How soon do you see those levels coming in because while the international currencies have not declined so much, the Indian currency today took a strong hit?
Ashok Gautam: The opening move itself took a lot of people by surprise. There is no pointer within India or outside that it should have weakened so much. However, now it looks that 56.20 will be a support for some time.
ET Now: There have been reports in the Indian markets that the RBI did intervene at 56.40 of levels, but the rupee is not heeding into that. Would you say the market really is bearish and there is little that the RBI can do at current levels?
Ashok Gautam: I would not like to say whether the RBI cannot do anything. They have a lot of things to do which they can do. I am not too sure whether they intervened because they do not intervene through us. However, at this point of time, the mood seems bearish and the rupee seems to be under pressure. 56.75 can come in a day, but I only hope this does not happen fast.
ET Now: Where do you think the rupee is getting most of its pain from? Is it the domestic cues or the international markets which are putting pressure?
Ashok Gautam: It looks to be a lot of news from the domestic front that is driving it. However, even if there is positive news outside, something on the domestic side comes up which puts pressure on the rupee or vice versa. So, it seems to be only soaking in the bad news and weakening.
ET Now: The rupee is underperforming many other currencies. How do you look at the rupee now?
Ashok Gautam: The rupee has convincingly breached the level which we maintain for a long time at 56.20. It has hit a lifetime low today. If it closes above that, probably There is very much room open for 56.75 on the first strike and beyond that, maybe 57.20.
ET Now: How soon do you see those levels coming in because while the international currencies have not declined so much, the Indian currency today took a strong hit?
Ashok Gautam: The opening move itself took a lot of people by surprise. There is no pointer within India or outside that it should have weakened so much. However, now it looks that 56.20 will be a support for some time.
ET Now: There have been reports in the Indian markets that the RBI did intervene at 56.40 of levels, but the rupee is not heeding into that. Would you say the market really is bearish and there is little that the RBI can do at current levels?
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Ashok Gautam: I would not like to say whether the RBI cannot do anything. They have a lot of things to do which they can do. I am not too sure whether they intervened because they do not intervene through us. However, at this point of time, the mood seems bearish and the rupee seems to be under pressure. 56.75 can come in a day, but I only hope this does not happen fast.
ET Now: Where do you think the rupee is getting most of its pain from? Is it the domestic cues or the international markets which are putting pressure?
Ashok Gautam: It looks to be a lot of news from the domestic front that is driving it. However, even if there is positive news outside, something on the domestic side comes up which puts pressure on the rupee or vice versa. So, it seems to be only soaking in the bad news and weakening.
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