Canada will reject 606,000 study permits in 2024. Here are the calculations behind its international student cap

Canada has finally revealed details about its plan to curb the number of study permits each province issues to international students for the next two years. Canada has said it plans to decrease number of new international student permits issued, and the target for approved study permits for the year 2024 has been established at 485,000.

“On January 22, I announced a national cap on study permit applications to address the rapid increase of international students in Canada. Provincial and territorial allocations for 2024 have now been finalized. I would like to take this opportunity to share those figures and explain how we made these decisions," Immigration Minister Marc Miller said in a statement.

Introducing the Net Zero First Year Growth Model

Miller unveiled a strategy known as the Net Zero First Year Growth Model - that aims to stabilize the number of incoming post-secondary students while ensuring optimal support and resources for their academic journey in the country.

At the core of this model lies a national cap, calculated to align with the number of expiring study permits in the current year. The premise is simple: the intake of international students in 2024 should mirror the number of students whose permits are set to expire within the same timeframe.

To refine this figure, the government accounted for various factors, including the percentage of students seeking permit extensions annually, estimated at approximately 20%. By deducting this cohort (equivalent to 97,000 individuals) from the initial target, and incorporating a slight buffer for potential fluctuations, a revised target of 364,000 approved study permits emerged for 2024.

Building upon a national approval rate of 60% for study permit applications, the adjusted target translates into a cap of 606,000 study permit applications anticipated for 2024. However, certain categories of international students, such as those pursuing primary and secondary education or advanced degrees like master’s or doctoral programs, are exempt from this cap.

By deducting the estimated volume of these exempt groups (amounting to 140,000 based on 2023 data) from the 2024 target, a final target of 236,000 approved study permits was determined. This equates to an approximate allocation of 393,000 study permit applications for the upcoming year.

Miller emphasized that these figures serve as a foundation for informed decision-making regarding allocations in subsequent years. He reiterated the government's commitment to collaborating with provinces and territories to fortify the International Student Program and furnish international students with the necessary resources for their success in Canada.

ALLOCATION MODEL

Zero net growth (one-out, one-in)
Study permits expiring in 2024 (all cohorts)	485,000
Exempted groups and buffer	-249,400
Target new study permits approved 2024	235,600
Assumptions
Approval rate	60%
Allocations (# of applications)
Cap space allocated to PTs	392,667

Finalizing Provincial and Territorial Allocations
Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) have concluded the allocation process for provincial and territorial study permit applications, marking a pivotal step in the implementation of the national cap on international student enrollment. The allocation model, designed to ensure equitable distribution while accommodating regional dynamics, aims to strike a balance between managing growth and supporting broader immigration objectives across provinces and territories.

Under this model, the adjusted number of study permit applications, totaling 393,000, was distributed based on the population share of each province and territory. This approach acknowledges the varying capacities and needs of different regions, with some poised to welcome more students in 2024 compared to 2023, while others anticipate a decline in new enrollments.

For provinces anticipating growth, allocations were adjusted to limit expansion to 10% compared to 2023 figures, fostering controlled and sustainable development. Conversely, provinces expecting a decrease in student intake received adjusted allocations aimed at mitigating immediate adverse effects and aligning with broader regional immigration goals.

Furthermore, IRCC implemented top-ups for provinces with approval rates lower than 60%, ensuring equitable access to study permits and enabling jurisdictions to reach their anticipated enrollment targets for 2024.

Approximately 552,000 study permit applications have been allocated to provinces and territories under the national cap. It is projected that these allocations will yield approximately 292,000 approved study permits, reflecting a 28% reduction from 2023 levels for the groups included under the cap.

Miller emphasized the dynamic nature of international student enrollment, acknowledging that various factors, including provincial capacity, approval rates, and in-year adjustments, may influence the final number of students arriving in Canada in 2024. The data gathered from this allocation process will inform future decisions on allocations for 2025, underscoring the government's commitment to collaborative efforts with provinces and territories to fortify the International Student Program and provide essential support for the success of international students in Canada.

	Allocation After Initial Adjustment			Final Allocation After Top-Ups for PTs with Approval Rate Below 60%
Province / Territory	PT Allocations (A)	Projected SPs Approved (B)	% Change from 2023	Top-Up (C)	Revised PT Allocations with Top-Up (A+C)	Projected SPs Approved (same as B
Alberta	40,894	24,537	10%	N/A	40,894	24,537
British Columbia	83,000	49,800	-18%	N/A	83,000	49,800
Manitoba	15,233	9,140	-10%	3,420	18,652	9,140
New Brunswick	9,279	5,567	-10%	5,372	14,651	5,567
Newfoundland and Labrador	2,365	1,419	10%	788	3,153	1,419
Northwest Territories	333	200	4900%	N/A	333	200
Nova Scotia	12,906	7,744	-10%	7,472	20,378	7,744
Nunavut	333	200	6567%	N/A	333	200
Ontario	235,000	141,000	-41%	N/A	235,000	141,000
Prince Edward Island	2,004	1,202	-10%	308	2,312	1,202
Quebec	72,716	43,629	10%	45,202	117,917	43,629
Saskatchewan	12,043	7,226	10%	3,011	15,054	7,226
Yukon	417	250	205%	N/A	417	250
Total	486,523	291,914	-28%	65,572	552,095	291,914