Punjab elections exit poll 2017: CVoter predicts majority for AAP

NEW DELHI: CVoter predicts that Punjab has voted for change - a big change - with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) opening its account in the state with a majority. Consequentially, the incumbent Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP combine is predicted to have gotten a massive drubbing. CVoter polled a sample size of 13,717 people. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

Seat share
The magic number in Punjab is 59. CVoter predicts AAP winning between 59 and 67 seats in the 117-strong Assembly. This is up from nil in the 2012 Punjab elections. The Congress party's showing has remained about the same as in 2012. It's predicted to have won between 41 and 49 seats. In 2012, the Congress won 46 seats. The SAD-BJP combine is predicted to have been decimated winning just between 5 and 13 seats, compared with its 2012 showing, when it won as many as 68 seats.

	Akali+	Congress	AAP	Others
India News - MRC	7	55	55	0
India TV - CVoter	5-13	41-49	59-67	0-3
News 24- Chanakya	9	54	54	0
	Total Seats: 117	Magic number: 59

Region-wise break up
AAP is projected to have gained big in Malwa, at the cost of the SAD-BJP combine. CVoter predicts AAP likely won 42 seats there, with SAD-BJP managing to get just 5 seats. By cmparison, in 2012, SAD-BJP won 33 seats in Malwa in 2012. The Congress is also projected to have lost seats in Malwa. It's expected to have won 16 seats, down from 2012's 28 seats.

In the Doab region, SAD-BJP is projected to have dropped to 2 seats from 16 in 2012. The Congress is projected to have gained here with 19 seats, up from 2012's 11. And AAP is projected to have won 6 seats.

SAD-BJP is predicted to have lost big in the Manjha region too. It's expected to be down to 2 seats from 19 in 2012. The Congress is expected to have gained three seats in Manjha with CVoter predicting it won 10. AAP is expected to have won 15 seats.

Share of percentage of votes
The SAD-BJP combine's projected loss of seats reflects in its projected vote share loss as well. The combine's vote share is expected to have dropped by a huge 20.5 percent, down to 21.4 percent from 42.9 percent in 2012. Despite Amarinder, the Congress too is projected to have lost vote share. CVoter's projection shows the Congress vote share is down to 36.3 percent from 2012's 40.1 percent.