Bihar polls: Does high turnout mean a decisive verdict?

PATNA: The five phases of polling for 217 Bihar assembly seats have recorded a much higher voter turnout not seen in recent times in the state. From 44.4% in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the voter turnout has this time shot up to 53%, a jump of 8.61%. Compared to the 2005 November state assembly elections, the turnout has risen by 7.11%, something which was not predicted in the run up to the polls.

It has led to speculation as to which political combine will benefit from the higher voter turnout. Is it a traditional anti-incumbency wave? Unlikely, say analyst, given the relatively better track-record of the Nitish Kumar government.

The only guess that’s made is that the high turnout will not ensure a hung verdict since most people are sure of whom to vote for. A swing of this nature is likely to pose incalculable damage to the electoral prospects of a political grouping feel analyst. "If the RJD-LJP combine wins, it will win very comfortably, and if it loses, it will lose very badly. Same will be the case for the ruling NDA which will come with surprising numbers if they are to win.

At the same time, the heavy turn out negates the possibility of hung assembly. However, every one knows the higher turn out this time is a vote for development," remarked a political analyst associated with a local research institute.

The sixth and final phase of polling for 26 seats will be held on November 20 and the chances of any sharp fluctuation in the overall turnover percentage is being ruled out.

What is even more remarkable, some assembly constituencies like Jokihat, Baisi, Saharsa, Bagha and Lauriya have registered a jump of nearly 10% and even more in the voter turnout when compared to the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Even more startling are the examples of other assembly constituencies like Govindganj where the turnout was as high as 56% from 37%. In Kesaria, it shot up to 56.50% from 33.41% when compared to the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.

There are number of constituencies where the voter turnout has risen by more than 10%, 15% and even beyond 20%, indeed a baffling proposition for poll watchers and for all those taking avid interest in the Bihar elections. Bihar has had elections in the past when voter turnout in booths went as high as 90%. But once the EVMs were introduced and the election commission started tightening screws, the polling percentage dropped.