Israel's Arab parties set for kingmaker status, may hold key to Netanyahu's political future

NAZARETH, Israel - Israel's Palestinian citizens appear set to secure a record number of seats in parliament and could emerge as kingmakers after strong turnout in Tuesday's election, galvanized by what they describe as the racist policies of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government.

But while they may have helped block an outright win by Netanyahu and his far-right allies, parties representing Israel's 21% Arab minority have so far been shunned by the prime minister's main opponent, Gadi Eisenkot, who has no clear path to power without them.

Vote tallies show the two main Arab parties on course to win around 19 of parliament's 120 seats, nearly double their current representation in the Knesset. Netanyahu's coalition bloc is on track for 53 seats, short of the 61 needed for a majority, with Eisenkot's grouping expected to win 48 seats.

'GETTING RID OF NETANYAHU'S GOVERNMENT'

Yousef Jabareen, the leader of the Arab-dominated Joint List, told Reuters his party would seek to use its projected 12 seats "to facilitate getting rid of Netanyahu's government and hopefully helping to change the political situation in Israel."

Jabareen said the Joint List could not join an Eisenkot-led government because of its support for Israel's military campaign in Gaza and occupation of southern Lebanon.

But he left open the possibility of bolstering Eisenkot's bloc from the outside, propping up a minority government that could survive confidence votes.

"We have our demands to protect our community, to advance the rights of our community and to promote equality for our community," said Jabareen, speaking from his home in the Arab town of Umm al-Fahm.

He said the priorities were tackling soaring crime, boosting funding and opportunities in Arab communities, and reopening peace talks on a Palestinian state.

The second main Arab party, Ra'am, is led by Mansour Abbas, who joined Naftali Bennett's government in 2021, the first time an independent Arab party entered an Israeli coalition. That government collapsed after 18 months, partly because of disagreements over the occupied West Bank.

This time, Abbas, a dentist-turned-politician, has sought to make Ra'am a more attractive coalition partner, adding a Jewish former police official to its slate and saying he would join an Eisenkot-led government.

Speaking to Israeli television after voting wrapped on Tuesday night, Ra'am chief Mansour Abbas said: "I believe we can overcome the difficulties ... and I think that most voters for the (Eisenkot) bloc do want to see (a) government with the Ra'am party."

He said senior members of Eisenkot's bloc had discussed a possible deal with him even before the election.

Eisenkot ruled out forming a government with Arab parties during the campaign, citing what he called a lack of shared values, including recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state.

In remarks to supporters after exit poll results were published on Tuesday night, Eisenkot said he would work to form a "stable Zionist government that serves all Israeli citizens."

Ameer Fakhoury, a political sociologist at Jerusalem's Van Leer Institute, said that Arab votes may block Netanyahu and make an alternative government possible.

"But arithmetic is not legitimacy. The Jewish opposition may need Palestinian votes while refusing Palestinian partners. That is the central paradox," he said.

ARABS FRUSTRATED BY RIGHT-WING RHETORIC

Israel's Arab minority is mostly descended from Palestinians who lived under Ottoman and British colonial-era rule and who remained inside the borders of what became the modern state of Israel in 1948.

Throughout the elections campaign, Israel's far-right have demonized Palestinian citizens of Israel and branded Arab political participation as a threat to the state.

Ahead of the vote, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich proposed a plan to "Judaize" areas around Nazareth and in southern Israel where many Arabs live, comparing it to Jewish settlement expansion in the West Bank.

Pollsters had predicted high Arab turnout, and, on election day, Netanyahu, Smotrich and far-right partner Itamar Ben-Gvir repeatedly warned that Arabs were voting in large numbers, appealing to their own supporters to turn out.

Mohamed Abbas, 19, speaking in Nazareth, said he and many others in his generation were driven to vote by what he described as rising racism toward Arab Palestinian citizens.

"We want equality...we do not want displacement laws or preference given to Jewish people," Abbas said.