It’s the same old testament: Netanyahu may weaken, but Israel’s policies may endure

It is difficult to remember an Israeli election in which the outside world has displayed more interest than the one held on Oct 27. It is equally difficult to remember another Israeli election where the world outside the boundaries of the Jewish state has been spared less thought.

With most votes counted by Wednesday, the hard-right wing coalition led by Likud's incumbent PM Benjamin 'Bibi' Netanyahu is projected to fall from 64 seats in the 120-seat Knesset to somewhere around 54, Likud remaining the single-largest party with a tally of 28 or so. The not-much-less right-wing opposition bloc, led by the former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot of Yashar, looks like finishing with a tally just short of 50.

Also Read: Gadi Eisenkot: The ex-general seeking Israel’s highest political office


Arab Israeli political parties, representing 20% of Israeli citizenry, had polled a record turn-out in these elections, and finishing with 18 seats or so - which would mark their highest Knesset tally. While the opposition appears to be about a dozen votes shy of a simple majority, Bibi looks like a few seats short himself. It looks like the incoming government will remain as unstable as the last several have been.

For Israeli citizens, Tuesday's vote was mostly about whether Bibi can be trusted with their security after the carnage of Oct 7, 2023, carried out by Gaza-based Palestinian militant outfit, Hamas. The ruling coalition (with the most right-wing cabinet since 1948) has argued that in their hostile neighbourhood, Bibi remains the safest pair of hands. The opposition bloc has argued that Bibi should be held accountable for the October attacks, particularly for the alleged failure to work on advance intelligence about the attacks provided by the UAE.

Bibi has built his own case of being 'Mr Security' in Israeli politics this time around the immensely popular and highly effective military campaigns against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and then the two brief wars against Iran. Eisenkot has accused him of first being too preoccupied with his own political survival in the face of a prospective trial on corruption charges to attend to the threat posed by Hamas, and then of engaging in endless military campaigns to escape accountability for that negligence.

Based on the principle of proportional representation - unlike first-past-the-post in Westminster-style democracies - elections in Israel never deliver a clear verdict for or against a single party. Governing coalitions are often cobbled together long after election results come out. In the last several elections, such coalitions have become increasingly more fragile.

Also Read: Benjamin Netanyahu, rival Eisenkot face uphill task to secure majority as Israel counts votes

In fact, Israeli governing coalitions have often been held hostage to smaller parties, without whom governments fail to master a working majority on the Knesset floor. For instance, in the outgoing government, the hard-right Otzmah Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Religious Zionism Party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, had 14 seats between them, pushing Bibi farther towards settler colonialism in the occupied territories than he had ever been.

The Eisenkot coalition tried to capitalise upon the seething anger against Bibi from the 2022-23 public demonstrations that accused him of undermining Israeli democracy and state institutions (like the judiciary) to escape prosecution on corruption charges. Also, a crucial issue in this election was Bibi's support for the ultra-orthodox Haredi Jewish community, and their demand for exemption of their youth from military service, mandatory upon every Israeli, so that they could devote themselves to the more important task of studying the holy texts.

Most political parties and segments of the Israeli population have questioned why Haredis should be spared military service at a time when IDF has remained in combat for more than 2 yrs, and stands badly in need of reinforcement. Eisenkot, in particular, speaks for the disquiet in IDF on this matter, and finds a resonance across Israeli society. Bibi, on the other hand, has enjoyed steadfast support from Haredis in the past. But at the stage of government formation, standing by them might cost him the support of other sections and political parties opposed to that exemption.

If the opposition succeeds in cobbling together a stable government - even by splitting Likud over the Haredi exemption issue - Bibi might actually be looking at the end of his distinguished, if chequered, career as the longest-serving PM of Israel, and maybe even a jail term for corruption.

But there's no clear pathway to an Eisenkot government with Bibi ahead in the race. The only possible way for him would have been to accept support from Arab Knesset members, who take up 16 seats between them.

Galvanised by the palpable anti-Palestinian sentiment all-pervasive in Israeli society since Oct 2023, these Israeli citizens of Palestinian origin had already named the price for their support: end of extrajudicial and collective punishment for fellow Palestinians, and containing of settler vigilantism in the occupied territories of West Bank and Gaza, among other things. Eisenkot had turned them down before elections.

Buoyed by their best-ever tally, Arab Israeli parties look set to hold their ground to stem violence in the occupied territories. Both sides may even agree to modify other parts of their agenda to topple Bibi. But any reprieve that this might bring Arab Israelis is unlikely to benefit the occupied territories, especially Gaza.

Despite the loss of parliamentary strength, Bibi's political skills could very well carry Likud back to office by winning over smaller outfits, including some now opposed to him. Two of Eisenkot's alliance, led by Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liebermann, are more likely to join Likud in a national security government, than seek support of Arab parties to oust Bibi. Eisenkot himself might agree to do the same - although by forcing Likud to drop Bibi - rather than accept Arab Israeli support to gain power.

Regardless of whether Bibi stays, Israeli policy is unlikely to change in quite a few respects that have resonance beyond its borders. Eisenkot, or his associates like former PM Naftali Bennett, agree with Bibi on the need for a decisive military campaign against Iran, and for crippling its regional proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas. In fact, they argue Bibi has not been sufficiently thorough, and should have prepared better before setting out on it.

It's now known that Bibi was raring for another attack against Iran the week before elections. Both he and his political rivals may even choose to restart the war within weeks they come to power. Israel seems set to continue to engage in military action beyond its borders for the foreseeable future.

Still more significantly, Jewish Israelis have never been this united in their opposition to the idea of a two-state solution since it was first mooted in the 1990s. After Oct 2023, the idea of coexistence with their Arab neighbours in occupied West Bank and Gaza strip appears to have disappeared from the Jewish Israeli radar altogether.

The relative impunity with which the killing of over 72,000 Palestinians in Gaza, or violence by Israeli settler communities against West Bank Palestinian settlements, have been treated since 2023, brings this out quite clearly. With an internationally acceptable resolution to the question of Palestine remaining elusive, any normalisation of Israel's relations with its Arab neighbours also remains highly unlikely.

However, since Oct 2023, Israel seems largely indifferent to these concerns. It looks reconciled to protracted and all-pervasive conflict within its borders and beyond. This week's election is unlikely to have changed that.

The writer is professor, Department of History, Calcutta University