Who decides US midterm election winners on TV? How AP, DDHQ and media networks make calls and why they can be retracted

US midterm election winners: When a television network announces a winner on US election night, it is making a call based on the available results, not issuing an official election certification. The decision comes after analysts examine the vote count and assess whether the candidate in second place can still catch up. Americans will vote for midterm elections on November 3, which will determine control of the House and Senate, along with races for governor and other offices.

Who Calls Winners in 2026 US Midterm Elections

News organizations decide when they have enough evidence to announce a winner. Many rely on vote counts from the AP or election data firm Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), while some use the numbers to make their own projections.

According to a Deadline report, 2026 marks the first election cycle in a decade in which all major US networks will rely on AP vote-count data. That gives them a shared set of vote totals, although their decisions about when to call a race can still differ.


The AP has counted votes in US elections since 1848. It collects results from local election offices, checks numbers against official sources and updates its count as more results come. Meanwhile DDHQ gathers vote totals from official state sources, uses statistical analysis & expert review to project winners.

How Associated Press Decides Who Has Won

AP relies on reported vote totals and an estimate of how many ballots remain uncounted. Its analysts look at where the outstanding votes are expected to come from and whether the candidate who is behind still has a realistic chance of overtaking the leader.

AP elections vice president David Scott told Deadline that, “We will use The Voter Poll as part of our work on the decision desk, but ultimately the thing that drives race calls more than anything else is our assessment of vote count.”

The AP says it does not project likely winners. It declares a candidate the winner when its analysis shows that the trailing candidate can no longer catch up. That can happen before every ballot has been counted, while close races may remain uncalled until more results arrive.

The AP plans to cover nearly 7,000 races in 2026, including more than 5,200 contested races across federal, state and local elections, according to its election announcement.

Why Networks Can Call the Same Race at Different Times

Using the same vote-count data does not require news organizations to make the same decision at the same moment.

Some outlets rely on AP race calls. Others use AP vote totals alongside their own analysis, statistical models and expert judgment. Fox News, for example, will make its own calls in statewide races and contests that determine control of Congress, according to Reuters.

One network may therefore announce a winner while another continues to describe the race as too close to call. They may be working from the same vote totals but reaching different conclusions about whether the remaining ballots could change the outcome.

What Is The Voter Poll and Does It Decide Who Wins

The AP is also working with ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, CNN, Fox News and MS NOW on The Voter Poll, a survey designed to capture the views of people who vote in person, early or by mail.

SSRS conducts the survey, which combines traditional exit polling with methods previously used for AP VoteCast. It is intended to help news organizations understand voters' choices and the issues that influenced them.

The survey will provide results in every state holding an election for US Senate or governor. Deadline reported that broad survey data is scheduled to be released at 5 p.m. Eastern Time on Election Day. State-specific information about voters' views of candidates will follow poll closings, with a national survey overview expected at 8 p.m. Eastern Time.

The poll does not decide who wins. Scott told Deadline that it is one part of the AP's analysis, while the vote count remains the main basis for race calls.

Do Prediction Markets Influence Election Calls

Prediction markets may attract attention during an election, but the AP does not use their data to decide winners.

Scott told Deadline that some prediction markets are AP customers for vote-count data. He said the AP's decision team does not incorporate market forecasts into its process for declaring a winner.

The team focuses instead on election results and other direct information about the vote.

Who Certifies the Official Election Results

A news organization's race call is not an official election result. Election officials count ballots and complete the procedures required to verify & certify outcome.

US Constitution leaves the administration of elections largely to the states. State and local officials handle the official process, while news organizations independently assess the results and report who they believe has won.

That process can continue after election night, particularly in close races. A media outlet may call a winner before all ballots have been counted but its announcement doesn't replace the official count or certification.

Can a Media Organization Get a Race Call Wrong

Yes. Race calls are based on the evidence available at the time, and news organizations have withdrawn calls in previous elections.

While retractions are rare, but they have happened. DDHQ withdrew its projection in Seattle’s 2025 mayoral race and reversed a call in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District Democratic primary earlier this year after vote counts shifted, according to the Reuters report. Even AP retracted its call in California’s 21st Congressional District after Democrat T.J. Cox took the lead in 2018.