U.S. midterm elections 2026: Are Democrats finally making a comeback in Republican strongholds? Here's what a new midterm poll shows

U.S. midterm elections 2026: With the November midterm elections less than a month away, several Senate races in traditionally Republican states are drawing new attention. A new New York Times/Siena poll shows Democratic candidates leading or running essentially even in five states that Donald Trump carried in 2024. The races include Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas. The numbers add another layer to an already closely watched fight for control of the Senate, as per a report by USA Today.

What does the new Senate poll show?

The poll, conducted from Sept. 21 through Oct. 1, found Democratic candidates ahead in Alaska, Ohio and Texas, while the races in Kansas and Iowa were much closer. In Alaska, former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 50% to 43%, giving her a seven-point advantage.

Texas showed another notable gap. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico was ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 51% to 45%. In Ohio, former U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown led Republican Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 46%. Husted was appointed to the seat after JD Vance left it to become vice president.

Kansas was tied. Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall were each at 45%.

Iowa was also close, with Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson at 48% and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek at 47%.

The five-state results were part of a wider pattern highlighted by Reuters. The news agency reported that Democrats have become competitive in a number of states that Trump won by double digits in 2024, putting more Republican-held Senate seats into play.

Why are these Senate races getting so much attention?

Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, while Democrats hold 45 and two independents, Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, caucus with Democrats. The U.S. Senate confirms that party division. For Democrats to reach a majority, they would need a net gain of four seats while holding their existing seats.

That makes the five races in the new poll important pieces of the broader Senate map. The poll does not determine the outcome of any race, but it shows how competitive several Republican-held seats have become in the final weeks before Election Day.

The House had already been viewed as a major focus for the midterms. Now the Senate is getting more attention as well.

Trump's handling of the economy and the war with Iran are among the issues shaping the political environment. Reuters has also reported that rising living costs and concerns about the economy are playing a major role in several competitive races.

Is the economy still the biggest issue for voters?

The New York Times/Siena poll found that 57% of respondents across the five states strongly or somewhat disapproved of Trump's job performance. The economy stood out as the most important issue. Twenty-one percent of likely voters said it would be the biggest factor in deciding their vote.

Other issues included inflation and the cost of living at 8%, candidate character and competence at 8%, and immigration at 8%.

Among independent voters, the latter three issues received slightly higher ratings, according to the poll.

The political environment has also triggered a heavier campaign response from Republicans.

Trump has started a campaign tour through Republican-leaning states as the November election approaches. Reuters reported that the effort includes stops in places such as Texas and Ohio, where Republican Senate candidates are facing competitive races.

Republican campaign groups are also spending heavily. The supplied poll report says Trump's MAGA political action committee has pledged $400 million for the midterms, while the Senate Leadership Fund is spending $100 million in Texas to support Paxton.

Democrats are also competing in Florida, Nebraska, Mississippi, South Carolina and Kentucky, all states Trump won by double digits in 2024.

David Hopkins, a political science professor at Boston College, told Reuters, "Not only is there a swing away from the Republican Party compared to 2024, but the swing actually seems to be somewhat bigger in red America than in blue America, and that's putting these states that Trump won easily very much into play."

For voters and campaigns, the latest numbers underline how much attention is now focused on races that were once viewed as less competitive. The final weeks of the 2026 Senate campaign will determine how these polling margins translate into votes on Election Day.

FAQs

Which Senate races are closest?
Kansas is tied, while Iowa shows a one-point Republican lead.

What is the top issue in the poll?
The economy, cited by 21% of likely voters.