Hurricane Isaias Path: This Tropical storm could become first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 as Gulf Coast landfall nears

Tropical Storm Isaias is moving through the Gulf of Mexico. The storm might soon become the hurricane of the Atlantic season 2026. The storm had winds that stayed strong at 40 mph on Wednesday morning. It was heading east-northeast at a speed of 8 mph.The National Hurricane Center expects rapid strengthening over the next two days.

The path is still not set. Right now, forecasts show Isaias heading toward the northern Gulf Coast, with a possible landfall somewhere between eastern Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle.

Where is Tropical Storm Isaias headed?

As of Wednesday morning, Isaias was about 285 miles west of Progreso, Mexico. It was also about 580 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The storm is expected to move east for a time before turning north toward the Gulf Coast. The current forecast puts the possible landfall window late Friday into early Saturday.

Exactly where it comes ashore is still a big question.

The National Hurricane Center is warning people from Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle to keep a close eye on the storm. The agency said there is an "increasing risk of dangerous wind and storm surge impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast." Heavy rain is another concern.

Isaias could bring 3 to 6 inches of rain to parts of the northern Gulf Coast from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle between Friday and the weekend. Some locations could get as much as 10 inches.

There were no coastal watches or warnings in effect in the early Wednesday advisory. The NHC said hurricane watches would likely be issued along parts of the northern Gulf Coast later Wednesday.

Could Isaias become a hurricane?

Forecasters expect Isaias to strengthen quickly, and the warm Gulf waters are a major reason. AccuWeather meteorologists said water temperatures are well into the 80s. The company said the warm water "will provide plenty of fuel and help Isaias strengthen into a hurricane." The NHC expects Isaias to reach hurricane strength Thursday. It could then become a Category 2 hurricane by Friday, according to AccuWeather's forecast.

There is one thing working against the storm: wind shear. The jet stream is dipping unusually far south, creating wind shear that can interfere with tropical storms. How strong that shear becomes, and how long it sticks around, could affect Isaias' strength. Stronger, longer-lasting shear would likely keep the storm weaker. If Isaias gets some time with less shear, it could become stronger. The current forecast has the storm reaching 110 mph over the central Gulf before losing some strength closer to the coast.

AccuWeather expects a Category 2 hurricane when Isaias reaches the U.S. Gulf Coast late Friday night or early Saturday morning. The Associated Press noted that the Atlantic season had gone unusually late without producing its first hurricane. An unusually strong El Niño has helped keep the season quieter by increasing wind shear, which can make it harder for tropical systems to develop.

Isaias is the ninth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA has continued to forecast a below-normal season overall.

The northern Gulf Coast is the main area to watch. Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle are all within the broader area being monitored. The forecast might change again as Isaias moves north. People in the path should keep checking the latest updates, from the National Hurricane Center and local weather reports in order to stay safe. The information is taken from reports by The Weather Channel and North Jersey.com.