Exit polls predict 'Abki baar 350 khatakhat paar': How BJP retained ground

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will comfortably secure a third term for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), exit polls show. Though most exit polls do not indicate that the BJP-led NDA will cross the 400-seat mark, as Modi's campaign slogan 'Abki baar 400 paar' went, it is expected to comfortably cross the 350-seat mark, which would show that Modi has retained his ground and his support among the masses has not slackened.

Only poll results on June 4 will decide if Modi returns to power because exit polls are not always very accurate, but if he does, he will be the second prime minister after Nehru to win a third term.

Also Read: NDA alliance to come out on top in UP, MP and Gujarat; to make big gains in Bengal


What the exit polls predict
Republic Bharat--Matrize has given NDA 353-368, INDIA 118-133 and others 43-48. India NEWS-D-Dynamics predicts NDA will get 371 seats, INDIA 125 and others 47. Dainik Bhaskar has given NDA 285-350, INDIA 145-201 and others 33-49 seats. Meanwhile, India News-D-Dynamics predicts 371 for NDA, 125 for INDIA and 47 for others. Republic TV-P MARQ has given NDA 359, INDIA bloc 154 and others 30 seats. Jan Ki Baat has predicted 362-392 for NDA ,141-161 for INDIA and 10-20 seats for others.

Significantly, three polls have given maximum seats above 400 to the NDA. News24-Today's Chanakya predicts 400 seats for NDA and 107 for INDIA. India TV-CNX predicts 371-401 for the NDA and 109-139 for INDIA. India Today-Axis My India predicts 361-401 for NDA and 131-166 for INDIA.

If mean predictions from all the exit polls are considered, it will be reasonable to presume that the BJP-led NDA will easily cross the 350-seat mark and the BJP will end up winning nearly the same number of seats as before. This would mean the BJP retaining its ground.

What BJP loses on the swings, it gains on the roundabout
The BJP won 303 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha polls while the NDA alliance which it leads, totaled to 353 seats. A conservative estimate from the exit polls will show the BJP at least retaining its ground which would be no mean achievement for a party which has been in power for 10 years and faced a united opposition that had tactfully reached seat-sharing arrangements to resist the BJP with their maximum force.

Going by the exit polls, the BJP's performance differs from 2019 in that it is losing some of the seats it holds while gaining in new territories.

Exit polls show that the BJP's performance will dip in Maharashtra, Bihar, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Haryana while it will gain more seats in West Bengal, Telangana and Uttar Pradesh and make its presence felt in Kerala and Tamil Nadu where it can win one to four seats in each state.

While the contest in Maharashtra was expected to be highly unpredictable due to the major political upheavals, the splits in the NCP and Shiv Sena, in Rajasthan the BJP has seen infighting among its leaders. In Bihar, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s return to the NDA camp may have caused a credibility crisis leading to confusion among the BJP and JDU voters. In Karnataka, ever since the BJP lost the assembly elections to the Congress, it has been struggling to find its feet and its alliance with the JDS may not have gone down well with the JDS voters, the Prajwal Revanna scandal too may have taken its toll on the party tally.

In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is predicted to add to its tally, presumably due to the Ram Mandir factor. IN West Bengal too, the BJP is predicted to gain more seats. The party has been locking horns with the ruling TMC on various issues. The BJP's improved performance during the assembly polls in Telangana last year had indicated a better performance in the Lok Sabha polls too.

According to some polls, the BJP can spring a surprise in Kerala and Tamil Nadu where it is predicted to win one to four seats in each state, but its vote share is predicted to zoom up to anywhere around 25% in each state. Today's Chanakya has predicted 10 (± 4 seats) for the BJP in Tamil Nadu.

What worked for the BJP
If the exit poll predictions are broadly accurate, the BJP seems to have convinced its voters that it is working in their interest. Despite tempting promises by the opposition, BJP voters continue to have faith in the Modi government. The issues that were expected to erode the BJP's voter base, such as the caste survey and redistribution of wealth that the Congress had promised and the Agniveer factor, may not have made much impact.

If the BJP returns with the results predicted by the exit polls today, it will be a big vote of confidence for the Modi government. However, the NDA's inability to cross the 400-seat mark, as a conservative estimate of exit polls suggests, would mean that the BJP has not been able to add more voters to its base. A third consecutive term for Modi with more or less the same number of seats and vote share would mean his supporters continue to believe in his ability to lead the country. However, if the NDA hits the 400-seat mark, as a few exit polls have predicted, a large number of people who had voted for opposition parties in 2019 may have chosen to back Modi this time.