Election Result 2024: Prashant Kishor's predictions proved wrong, BJP fails to improve 2019 tally

As the vote counting for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections progresses, trends reveal a close contest between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Opposition's INDIA bloc. As of 10.54 pm on Tuesday, the Election Commission reported the BJP had won 221 seats and was leading in 19 seats, while the Congress had won 87 seats and was leading in 12 seats. This contradicts the predictions of many exit polls and political analysts, including those of political strategist Prashant Kishor.

What was Prashant Kishor's Election Result prediction?

Last month, Prashant Kishor predicted that the BJP would emerge as the "No.1" party in West Bengal. "They could very well be No.1 in Bengal...many of you will be surprised, but in all likelihood, to my mind...BJP is going to emerge as No. 1 party in West Bengal in Lok Sabha," Kishor told news agency PTI. However, current trends show Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC) leading in 29 seats, the BJP in 12, and the Congress in one seat as of 4:30 pm. The TMC and Congress, part of the INDIA bloc, contested separately in West Bengal.

How did BJP do in West Bengal

West Bengal has 42 Lok Sabha seats. The TMC registered a significant victory, winning 29 of these seats. The party dominated southern West Bengal, including Gangetic West Bengal and Kolkata, and also made inroads into BJP strongholds in north Bengal and the Jangalmahal region. This performance reduced the BJP to 12 seats, a significant drop from previous expectations. With the final results yet to be released, these are the numbers as of 10.51pm.

Exit Polls Versus Counting Trends

Multiple exit polls had predicted a strong performance for the BJP. For instance, News 24Today's Chanakya estimated the NDA might secure 400 seats, while the INDIA bloc was predicted to get 107 seats. However, the trends in vote counting indicate a more competitive scenario. The final results, expected by Tuesday night, will reveal the accuracy of these predictions.

Northeast India: Congress Gains

The Congress has shown signs of regaining strength in Northeastern India. In Nagaland and Manipur, the party is poised to win seats previously held by the BJP and the Naga People's Front (NPF). In Manipur, where ethnic violence has been rampant, the Congress blames the BJP government for failing to control the situation.

Rajasthan: Electoral Reversal

In Rajasthan, Union Minister Parshottam Rupala's remarks led to protests from the Rajput community, potentially contributing to electoral reversals for the BJP. The exact impact of these protests will become clearer as more results are declared.

Kishor's Perspective on BJP's Chances

Prashant Kishor believed the BJP could match or exceed its 2019 tally of 303 seats. He emphasized the importance of the BJP achieving a majority of 272 seats, despite exit polls indicating a larger margin for the NDA. Kishor stated, "If there is anger against the incumbent government and its leader, there is a possibility that regardless of whether there is an alternative, people may decide to vote them out. So far, we have not heard that there is widespread public anger against Modiji."