West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam exit polls: Will exit polls results stand at the end?

With voting across West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry now complete, attention shifted to exit polls—offering the first broad indicators of how voters may have cast their ballots. Released after the close of polling in line with Election Commission norms, these projections provided a snapshot of electoral trends, but stop short of being definitive outcomes.

Exit polls, conducted by surveying voters immediately after they cast their ballots, attempt to capture real-time voting behaviour. However, as past elections have shown, they remain estimates—susceptible to sampling errors, respondent bias and the complexities of India’s electoral landscape.

Recent elections offer clear reminders. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, multiple exit polls overestimated the BJP-led NDA’s tally. In state elections such as Bihar (2020) and Madhya Pradesh (2023), projections have diverged sharply from final outcomes.

BJP eyes Bengal breakthrough as projections show tight contest

In West Bengal, most exit polls on Wednesday point to a significant surge for the Bharatiya Janata Party, with several projecting that the party could cross the majority mark of 148 in the 294-member Assembly—potentially unseating the Trinamool Congress government led by Mamata Banerjee.

The ABP-CVoter poll projected the BJP at 150–160 seats, while Praja Poll estimated an even larger tally of 178–208 seats. Poll Diary placed the BJP in the 142–171 range, and Matrize projected 146–161 seats—each indicating an edge for the party.

The Trinamool Congress, meanwhile, was largely projected below the halfway mark in most surveys. The only major outlier came from People’s Pulse, which projected a comfortable TMC victory with 177–187 seats.

Taken together, the projections suggest a sharply polarised contest with a possible BJP breakthrough—but Bengal’s history of unpredictable outcomes keeps the final result far from certain.

NDA ahead in Assam, projections point to comfortable win

In Assam, exit polls indicate a clear advantage for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.

Axis My India projected the NDA to win between 88 and 100 seats in the 126-member Assembly, well above the majority mark of 64. The alliance was also estimated to secure around 48% of the vote, compared to about 38% for the Congress-led opposition.

If borne out in the final results, the projections would mark another decisive mandate for Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, reinforcing the BJP’s dominance in the state.

Tamil Nadu: DMK leads, but Vijay emerges as disruptor

In Tamil Nadu, most exit polls projected a second consecutive term for the DMK-led alliance under Chief Minister M.K. Stalin.

Estimates placed the alliance at around 138–142 seats in the 234-member Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark. The AIADMK-led front was projected to remain competitive in select regions, preventing a completely one-sided contest.

A key variable this election is actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). While most polls suggested the party may not win many seats, they estimated a vote share of 5–8%, particularly among younger voters—enough to influence outcomes in close contests.

However, Axis My India diverged sharply, projecting the TVK-led alliance at 98–120 seats, potentially transforming the election into a three-cornered contest and positioning Vijay as a possible kingmaker.

Kerala and Puducherry: Signs of churn and generational shifts

In Kerala, multiple exit polls indicated a potential return to power for the Congress-led United Democratic Front, suggesting voter fatigue with the incumbent Left Democratic Front after two terms.

In Puducherry, projections pointed to an edge for the NDA, though with a fragmented mandate. Here too, Vijay’s appeal among younger voters emerged as a notable factor, with exit polls indicating strong support among first-time voters even where it may not fully translate into seats.

What the projections suggest—and why caution remains key

Across states, exit polls point to:

• A potential BJP breakthrough in West Bengal
• A comfortable NDA lead in Assam
• A DMK advantage in Tamil Nadu, with a new disruptor in play
• Anti-incumbency signals in Kerala
• A fragmented but NDA-leaning contest in Puducherry

Yet, the wide variation between pollsters—particularly in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu—underscores the inherent uncertainty of these projections.

The bottom line

Exit polls provide an early read of electoral trends, not final verdicts. Their accuracy depends on sampling, voter candour and the ability to capture complex social coalitions—factors that often vary widely across states.

This time, while the projections point to clear narratives in some regions and tight contests in others, the real test will come on counting day—when it becomes clear whether the pollsters have captured the mood of the electorate, or missed it once again.