West Bengal Phase 2 polls: Will anti-incumbency, scam charges and SIR row end TMC's 15-year run?

West Bengal votes on April 29 to decide whether nearly 15 years of Trinamool Congress rule continues and the final phase may be the harder one.

With 142 constituencies across eight districts going to the polls, including Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's own Bhabanipur seat, Phase 2 covers the state's urban heartland where anti-incumbency, the school recruitment scam and the SIR voter roll controversy have cut deepest.

Phase 1 had already set the tone, recording a turnout of around 91-92%, one of the highest in the state since independence.


Also Read: Bengal Phase 2 showdown: Can Mamata hold TMC’s bastions against BJP surge?

Votes will be counted and results declared on May 4. The West Bengal Legislative Assembly's tenure is scheduled to end on May 7.

The anti-incumbency factor

For Banerjee, the principal hurdle is anti-incumbency after nearly 15 years in office. The campaign has been shaped by broader debates over identity, governance, women's safety, employment, development, and anti-incumbency with dissatisfaction over jobs, corruption and law and order discussed not as separate issues but as deeply intertwined ones.

The TMC has sought to counter this with welfare. Welfare schemes and direct benefit transfers continue to play a decisive role in shaping voter preferences, with women voters emerging as a crucial electoral bloc influencing campaign strategies across constituencies.

The corruption cloud

The school recruitment scam has cast a long shadow. The Supreme Court and the Calcutta High Court invalidated around 25,000 appointments from the 2016 West Bengal SSC recruitment panel, citing large-scale irregularities and describing the process as "irretrievably tainted," ordering a fresh recruitment process.

Corruption and governance have remained central opposition themes, with these allegations forming a major line of attack on the AITC government's record in administration, public recruitment and institutional credibility.

Beyond the scam, allegations of everyday "tolabazi" extortion, where people feel pressured to pay unofficial money to local operators for activities as basic as opening a shop have also featured strongly in voter concerns.

Identity politics and the SIR controversy

Identity politics remained significant in the campaign. Bengali asmita, the Matua vote, and questions of language, belonging and representation were prominent themes across several regions. The AITC sought to present itself as the defender of Bengali identity and state autonomy, while the BJP tied identity questions to citizenship, migration and Hindu consolidation in selected constituencies.

Layered on top of this is the controversy over the Special Intensive Revision of voter rolls. The SIR removed around nine million voters from the rolls, representing about 12% of the electorate.

Over six million were categorised as absentee or deceased, while 2.7 million remain pending before tribunals. Roughly 65% of the undecided group were Muslims, while Dalit Hindus, especially from the Matua community, were also affected in certain districts.

The BJP attempted to frame the SIR exercise as a referendum on infiltration and citizenship, while the TMC characterised it as an effort to disenfranchise legitimate voters, particularly minorities, migrant workers and economically vulnerable groups. The issue remains under judicial scrutiny.

Women's safety and jobs

Women's safety was a recurring issue in the campaign, especially after the 2024 R.G. Kar Medical College and Hospital rape and murder case, which drew national attention and remained part of the wider law and order debate. The AITC cited NCRB data showing Kolkata's comparatively low reported crime rate among large cities, while the BJP argued that such data did not capture under-reporting or failures to register cases.

Also Read: West Bengal Phase 2 elections: Women voters outnumber men in 23 Bengal seats, defying SIR cuts

On employment, the BJP foregrounded industrial revival in its criticism of the state government, while the AITC campaigned on welfare schemes and promised continued investment and infrastructure expansion.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a public meeting at Jilepi Math in Jagatdal on Monday, while Union Home Minister Amit Shah held road shows in Behala and Chandannagar. Mamata Banerjee held a public outreach march in Jadavpur and a programme in her own constituency, Bhabanipur.

After Phase 1, Amit Shah claimed at a press conference that the BJP was set to win more than 110 of 152 Phase 1 seats, a claim the TMC has rejected. With 142 more seats being decided tomorrow, the final voter count across the state stood at 68,251,008, after around 9.1 million names were removed during the SIR process.

All results will be declared on May 4.