West Bengal elections: Can Didi hold the fort against Modi and BJP’s push in battle for Bengal's soul?

The high-stakes battle for Bengal will unfold on Thursday as the first phase of voting gets underway, setting the tone for a fiercely fought electoral war. In the run-up, the contest has been marked by bitter sparring between the BJP and the TMC, with SIR of electoral rolls to heated debates over people’s dietary habits taking centre stage. Voting in 152 constituencies across north Bengal and several districts in the southern part of the state is slated for April 23.

A total of 1,478 candidates are in the fray for these 152 Assembly constituencies that will go to the polls in the first phase on Thursday. The number of male candidates is 1,311, while the number of female candidates is 167. There is not a single third gender candidate.

West Bengal elections 2026: The real numbers test for Mamata Banerjee’s command & BJP’s pitch

What BJP, TMC others promised

The battle for Bengal has turned into a fierce contest over the same decisive voter blocs, with both the TMC and BJP pitching aggressively to women, youth and welfare beneficiaries. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is banking on the social coalition of women, minorities and SC-ST voters that has anchored the TMC’s dominance since 2011. The BJP, however, is attempting to disrupt that base with a mix of financial promises, Bengali pride messaging, and a hardline stance on issues such as the Uniform Civil Code, infiltration and citizenship for Hindu refugees.

Recognising women as the TMC’s strongest support base, the BJP has moved to directly challenge it rather than sidestep it. The BJP has promised Rs 3,000 monthly assistance, free bus travel, 33 per cent reservation in government jobs, and dedicated women safety measures such as police stations and ‘Durga Suraksha Squads’. Alongside these assurances, the BJP is seeking to tap into concerns over safety, invoking incidents like RG Kar and Sandeshkhali to build a narrative around security, dignity and fear-free living.

West Bengal Assembly Election 2026 Key Issues: Jobs distress, welfare politics and identity battles shape high-stakes TMC vs BJP contest

The TMC, in contrast, is reinforcing its traditional support among minorities, who make up nearly 30 per cent of the electorate and influence a large number of seats. Its manifesto includes assurances on Waqf properties, educational institutions like Aliah University, and skill development in minority-dominated areas—moves aimed at consolidating a constituency wary of the BJP’s assertive campaign and rising communal rhetoric.

For the BJP, polarisation remains a central electoral strategy. Its promises to implement the Uniform Civil Code, curb infiltration, and act against ‘Love Jihad’ and ‘Land Jihad’ are designed to consolidate Hindu votes and reframe the election as a choice between “appeasement and justice” or “security and infiltration.” The sharper this pitch becomes, the more the TMC seeks to counter it by consolidating minority and secular voters, turning the contest into a high-stakes ideological duel.

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Both parties are also competing for key regional and social segments. The TMC has doubled down on welfare outreach in SC-ST belts, while the BJP has countered with promises of linguistic recognition for communities like Rajbanshis and Kurmalis, along with a development-heavy pitch for north Bengal, including institutions such as AIIMS, IIT and IIM.

Meanwhile, the Left Front and Congress, locked out of the central power contest, are focusing on reclaiming relevance by shifting the narrative away from identity politics to bread-and-butter issues. Their campaigns centre on jobs, industrial revival and welfare delivery without corruption. The Left has promised employment guarantees and industrial expansion, while the Congress has offered a moderated welfare model, arguing that social support can continue without the baggage of anti-incumbency.

TMC vs BJP vs Congress vs Left

Party	Strengths	Weaknesses	Opportunities	Threats
TMC (Trinamool Congress)	Strong grassroots connect across regions; robust booth-level machinery; extensive welfare schemes backing women & weaker sections; consolidation of minority votes	Rising anti-incumbency after 15+ years; corruption and governance allegations; internal factionalism; image hit due to political violence narrative	Fragmented opposition aids dominance; Bengali identity narrative counters BJP; welfare base can be expanded; candidate reshuffles can address local anger	BJP’s growing push; rising polarisation; electoral controversies; urban & border areas turning competitive
BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party)	Narendra Modi’s national appeal; rapid organisational expansion since 2019; consolidation of Hindu vote; high-intensity campaign machinery	No strong CM face; outsider perception in Bengal; factionalism within cadre; weaker rural grassroots vs TMC	Anti-incumbency against TMC; scope to expand among women & welfare beneficiaries; consolidation of anti-TMC votes; leverage national issues	Bengali identity backlash; TMC welfare ecosystem; risk of over-polarisation; vote split due to Congress-Left
Congress	Historical pockets in Malda & Murshidabad; legacy brand recall; minority vote appeal in select seats; centrist positioning	Organisational decline; lack of strong state leadership; cadre erosion; squeezed in bipolar contest	Attract anti-TMC & anti-BJP voters; targeted gains in strongholds; appeal to moderation; strategic candidate selection	Bipolar TMC-BJP fight; vote splitting; continued cadre migration; risk of long-term irrelevance
Left (CPI(M) & allies)	Strong ideological base; legacy of governance under Jyoti Basu; disciplined cadre in pockets; clear ideological alternative	Steep electoral decline; ageing leadership; shrinking voter base; weak youth connect	Scope for grassroots revival; discontent with both major parties; youth mobilisation; gains in traditional bastions	Dominance of TMC & BJP; risk of irrelevance; lack of reinvention; opposition vote fragmentation

How SIR impact polls?

Political parties, especially the TMC, have raised concerns about the ECI's Special Intensive Revision of the electoral rolls, particularly in Muslim-majority Malda and Murshidabad, while the Commission has maintained that the exercise was part of routine updating to remove duplicate and ineligible entries.

West Bengal’s 2026 election may ultimately hinge not on the headline arithmetic of 294 seats, but on a clutch of 65–70 razor-thin constituencies where margins are wafer-thin and the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has dramatically reshaped the contest. From Nandigram to Bhabanipur, and across the Matua-dominated belt of North 24 Parganas to the minority-heavy districts of Murshidabad and Malda, recent electoral data shows how narrow the gap has become—often just 8,000 to 15,000 votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha segments, and even tighter in the 2021 Assembly polls, where several MLAs scraped through with margins as low as a few hundred votes.

Now, with over 90.83 lakh names, nearly 11.85 per cent of the electorate, deleted from the rolls till April 7, the electoral battlefield has shifted sharply. Nearly 27.16 lakh of these deletions fall under the “under adjudication” category, with the epicentre spread across about 70 seats in 11 districts. The highest concentration lies in Kolkata and its adjoining belts—North 24 Parganas, Howrah and Hooghly—followed by districts like Murshidabad, Malda, Bankura, Purulia, the Bardhamans and the Medinipurs. North 24 Parganas alone accounts for 13 such closely contested seats, while Murshidabad has 10 and Bankura-Purulia nine.

The scale of disruption becomes stark when juxtaposed with past margins. In 2021, 57 seats were decided by 8,000 votes or less, split almost evenly between the TMC (29) and BJP (28). In constituencies like Kulti, Dantan, Ghatal, Bankura and Nandigram, victory margins ranged from just 600 to under 2,000 votes. Today, the number of deleted voters in these seats often dwarfs those margins—Kulti alone has seen around 38,000 names removed, while Nandigram has witnessed over 14,000 deletions, several times the margin that once decided the seat.

In politically sensitive regions like North 24 Parganas and Nadia, where the BJP has sought to consolidate a Matua-Hindu refugee base, the mismatch is even sharper. Seats such as Bongaon South and Kalyani, won by the BJP with margins of about 2,000 votes, have seen deletions ranging from 7,000 to 9,000 names. Meanwhile, Murshidabad—one of the TMC’s strongholds—has recorded the highest number of deletions under adjudication, with over 4.55 lakh names struck off, taking the total loss in the district to nearly 7.49 lakh voters. Similar large-scale deletions have been recorded in South 24 Parganas, North 24 Parganas, Malda and even Kolkata, where in most assembly segments the number of deleted voters exceeds previous victory margins.

This churn cuts across party lines. In at least 44 assembly seats, the number of deleted voters is greater than the winning margin in 2021—24 of these seats are held by the TMC and 20 by the BJP. Key constituencies like Nandigram and Gaighata feature in this list, underlining that neither side is insulated from the impact. The volatility is further highlighted by examples like Dinhata, where a seat decided by just 57 votes in 2021 swung dramatically in a bypoll months later by over 1.6 lakh votes.

The implications are enormous. Analysts told PTI that even a 1 per cent swing in vote share could flip at least 15 of these seats, while a 2 per cent shift could change the outcome in more than 20 constituencies.

Important battlegrounds

1. Nandigram: Battle of betrayal and prestige
Suvendu Adhikari’s turf returns to centre stage as the BJP heavyweight faces former ally-turned-rival Pabitra Kar of the TMC, making this one of the most symbolic and fiercely watched contests.

2. Rejinagar: Rebel vs party machine
A multi-cornered fight gets sharper with former TMC MLA Humayun Kabir entering as a rebel force, threatening to dent the ruling party’s prospects in a tightly contested seat.

3. Baharampur: Adhir’s fight for survival
Congress veteran Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury seeks a political comeback after his Lok Sabha setback, turning this into a key test of Congress’s fading relevance.

4. Siliguri: Urban heavyweight clash
BJP’s Shankar Ghosh takes on TMC mayor Gautam Deb in a high-stakes urban battle, with both sides eyeing dominance in north Bengal’s gateway city.

5. Kharagpur Sadar: Fortress under watch
BJP strongman Dilip Ghosh defends his bastion amid a spirited challenge from the TMC and Congress, making this seat a litmus test for the party’s hold in the region.

The second phase of polls in West Bengal will be on April 29.

The results will be declared on May 4.