BJP’s big bang: Bengal breached, Assam secured; Vijay, Congress flip the south

The Bharatiya Janata Party broke through Mamata Banerjee’s West Bengal bastion to end her 15-year rule, while new entrant and movie starturned-politician Vijay ousted MK Stalin in Tamil Nadu. And, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) wrested power from the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala, capping a round of assembly upsets.

The BJP, however, bucked the trend in Assam, retaining the state with an improved tally. In Puducherry, the AINRC-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won for the second time in a row. The mandate signals a shift in the country's political landscape, with the BJP emerging stronger than ever, dealing a setback to traditional regional parties. The BJP not only broke a barrier in West Bengal by winning more than 200 seats in the 294-seat assembly but also returned to power in Assam for the third consecutive term, with its strongest victory margin.

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It alone won more than 80 seats — a first for the party. The NDA won 101 seats in the 126-seat assembly. The BJP is also part of the AINRC-led alliance in Puducherry, where it won four seats, with the NDA securing 17 seats in the 30-member assembly. The victories in West Bengal and Assam provide a strong opening for the party ahead of crucial assembly elections next year in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur.

The rise of Vijay in Tamil Nadu heralds a new era of politics in the state, challenging the Dravidian model. His popularity among young voters indicates that they aspire to a kind of new politics, breaking away from business as usual.

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Limited Role of Freebies
Similarly, in West Bengal, the desire for change among the people, and anti-incumbency proved fatal for Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress. West Bengal tilting towards the BJP has strengthened its double-engine theory — that the party ruling the Centre will provide better governance in the state too. With the Trinamool Congress and DMK out of power, all eyes are now on Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and AAP in Punjab, to see if they can pose a challenge or will face a similar fate.

In Kerala, the Left Front's sole government fell to the UDF, posing a question over parties of that spectrum across the country. The Left parties won four seats in Tamil Nadu and one in West Bengal.

Parties opposed to the BJP in these states largely focused on the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls and made it a poll issue, accusing the Election Commission of disenfranchising minorities. Banerjee had also moved the Supreme Court over the matter. However, the issue didn’t seem to resonate on the ground, as minority votes were said to have been split in West Bengal.

The latest elections suggests that the law of diminishing returns applies to freebies and giveaways. In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress relied heavily on welfare schemes, including cash transfers to women. While it won the 2021 elections using the welfare plank, its promises fell flat in 2026, with people seeking more.

In Tamil Nadu, the DMK made cash transfers to the accounts of women ahead of elections. The LDF government in Kerala had launched the Sthree Suraksha Scheme, providing ?1,000 to women beneficiaries in February.

It was a different story in Assam, where chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma transferred Rs 9,000 to 4 million women beneficiaries as part of the Orunodoi 3.0 scheme. This seems to have played a role in consolidating women voters in the BJP’s favour.