UP Phase 6: Can Yogi Adityanath help BJP repeat its dominant performance of 2017?

NEW DELHI: BJP versus (SP vs BSP) … Well that’s how we can describe the electoral contest in 2017 in the 57 seats that are voting today in the Phase 6 of Uttar Pradesh elections.

The battle for UP is now in its eastern parts of the state with people in 10 districts, including Gorakhpur from where chief minister Yogi Adityanath is contesting , electing their representatives for the state assembly.

This is the first time that Yogi Adityanath is contesting an assembly election and the BJP would hope to gain big from his presence in the electoral fray.

While the BJP, like in the first five rounds of elections, was a clear winner in the region in 2017, its two main rivals - the Samajwadi Party and Mayawati’s BSP - shared the honours in the second and the third positions.

The SP was runner-up in 25 seats and in third position in 18 assembly constituencies. The BSP, on the other hand, was runner-up in 19 and came third in 28.

Clearly, the BJP’s two main rivals in the region performed strongly, much to the delight of the BJP which swept the region winning 46 out of 57 seats. The BSP emerged second in the region with 5 seats and the SP with two seats was pushed to the third spot. The Congress could manage only 1 seat.
2012 vs 2017
In 2012, the BJP could win only 8 seats in the region. However, in 2017 it gained seats from all its rivals. It wrested as many as 25 seats from the SP, 7 from the BSP, 3 from the Congress and 3 from others. The saffron party also retained all the 8 seats that it had won in 2012.

The SP on the other hand would hope for a repeat of 2012 when the voters of the region backed the party and helped it win 32 seats. In 2017, it was reduced to 2 seats.

Similarly, the BSP came down from 9 to 5 seats and the Congress from 5 to 1 seat.
BJP's convincing victory in 2017
The BJP’s win in 2017 was not just big in terms of numbers but was also decisive. The ruling party won 30 seats with a victory margin of over 10% of votes while the opposition parties could manage this in only one seat.
In terms of the number of ballots, the BJP won 20 seats with a margin of over 30,000 votes and 30 seats with over 20,000 votes margin.

Contrast this to the fact that the SP and the BSP or the Congress did not win even one seat with a margin of over 20,000 votes - and one gets an idea of how dominating the BJP’s victory was in the region in 2017.
BJP gains from triangular contests
The BJP’s victory in most of the seats was helped by the triangular contest involving rivals SP and the BSP.

Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati were locked in a close contest on most of the seats, helping the BJP in the process.

In 42 seats, the winners were helped by the three-way division of votes. On these seats, the victory margin was less than the votes polled by the party at the third position.

The BJP registered gains on 32 such seats due to division of votes.

The BSP at 3rd position harmed the SP in 13 seats against the BJP, while the SP at No. 3 spot played the spoilsport for Mayawati’s party in 10 seats, out of which 9 was won by the saffron party.

The Congress featured on 3 such seats helping the BJP and harming the BSP in the process.
With the 2022 elections once again multi-cornered in most of the seats, the BJP would hope that the SP-BSP rivalry will help it maintain the 2017 dominance in the region.