Why DMK may find it tough to breach EPS's bastion Edappadi

Chief minister Edappadi K Palaniswami never misses a chance to proclaim that Edappadi assembly constituency in Salem district remains an impregnable fortress of the AIADMK.

‘Edappadiyar,’ as he is fondly called by the partymen nowadays, points out that the last time the DMK tasted victory in this segment was five decades ago. The opposition camp won the segment in 2006, when the PMK candidate, as an ally of the DMK, defeated the AIADMK. But the victory could largely be attributed to the PMK rather than the DMK.

This time around, pitch reports show that the challenge has only got tougher for the DMK. Edappadi could be among the very few segments in the state where the majority vanniyars may not stick to a candidate from their caste, for, Palaniswami, a gounder, gave them 10.5% internal reservation within the MBC quota on the eve of polls. Factors at play in the constituency show that EPS has many more advantages.

To start with, the farmers and weavers, who form large chunk of voters, have been backing the AIADMK since the MGR days. The AIADMK has won the segment six times since 1977. Starting from his maiden election in 1989, EPS himself won Edappadi four times. Even in 1996 when there was a DMK–TMC wave, the DMK could not win Edappadi segment and the seat went to the PMK.

The odds stacked against the DMK do not end there. The formidable vanniyar vote bank of Edappadi is considered a tougher fort for the DMK to breach than the AIADMK’s. In 2016, the DMK polled lesser votes than the AIADMK and the PMK and had to settle for the third spot.

The DMK has attempted to tilt the balance in its favour by fielding a vanniyar, 37-year-old T Sampath Kumar.

Besides the caste arithmetic, the principal opposition largely appears to bank on anti-incumbency, anti-BJP sentiments and hopes that AMMK-DMDK alliance will split the AIADMK votes.

But AIADMK men say the fact that EPS is a chief ministerial candidate, who has made the segment ‘popular’, would work in their favour. In fact, the primary charge against EPS during his initial three years in office was that he was behaving like the chief minister of Salem, and more precisely that of Edappadi.

The DMK camp too is equally confident. “He could have done a lot to improve the constituency, but failed. EPS is a mirage which will disappear in this election,’’ says Sampath Kumar.