Rajasthan election vibrant, and as colourful as region's turbans

Rajasthan has presented a colourful election this time with a popular regional satrap doling out sops, a moping but popular Maharani and rebelling lieutenants checkmating their political masters. The state which has voted out the incumbent since 1998 has a curious mix of conundrums, which makes the elections exciting this time.

Popular Chief Minister

There is no obvious reason for anti-incumbency against chief minister Ashok Gehlot, which is a curious factor. The last 25 years has seen voter angst against the chief minister and ruling party legislators, despite many social welfare schemes implemented by respective administrations. In 2018, chief minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia faced the slogan, 'there is no enmity with Modi, but we will punish Vasundhara.' There is no such obvious dent in Gehlot's popularity. This was evident in the chief minister's appeal: "I appeal to everyone to imagine that I am contesting in each seat. You don't have to see who the local contestant is."


The oft repeated line that one heard on election tour was, "we have heard the government is returning to power." People attribute it to Gehlot's popular schemes like Chiranjeevi health insurance and free mobile phones for women. The election result will show if Gehlot's schemes have the power to overcome the state's five-year itch.

X Factor

BJP has been troubled by the question if Raje would be the X factor. The party has played a well-considered gamble by fielding seven parliamentarians. It has been seen as a strategy to introduce a new leadership in the state and replace the ones representing Rajasthan at the Centre by another set. But it is a big experiment for Rajasthan. It is the first election without projection of CM candidates. While Congress was expected to do it, the experiment has stirred the poll pot in BJP. This is the first time that the party has sidelined the Dholpur royal, who has been restricted to major party functions and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's rallies. On other days, Raje has been running her campaign separately. But the question is how much it would work against BJP.

Rebels Without A Pause

BJP usually manages to control rebels, but this time Congress and BJP camps are in similar states of disarray. There are at least 20 rebel contestants from BJP, comparable with 15 from Congress. Adding to the uncertainty is altered political alliances like Hanuman Beniwal's tie-up with Azad Samaj Party and entry of Haryana-based Jannayak Janata Party, which would make it a tough contest in several seats. In 2018, there were nine constituencies where the victory margin was less than 1,000 votes. Asind was decided by 154 votes, Marwar Junction by 251, Pilibanga 278, Bundi 713, Fatehpur 860, Pokhran 872, Danta Ramgarh 920, Khetri 957 and Siwana 957 votes. Congress and BJP won four each and the ninth was cornered by an Independent. In the last election, the difference in vote share between BJP and Congress was 0.5%. The close contest in several constituencies makes it a psephologist's nightmare.

Caste Combinations

Caste has always played a major role than religion in Rajasthan. The caste alignment has largely remained unchanged this time too. The only difference could be how Scheduled Castes vote, after the entry of Chandrashekhar Azad's ASP. The numerically strong Jats, classified as OBCs, could also split between Congress and BJP.