Exit Poll 2026 News Update: Who has the edge in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry?

After electoral battles across West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry over the course of the month, attention is now turning to the exit polls, the first broad indicators of how voters may have cast their ballots.

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BJP eyes historic Bengal breakthrough as exit polls point to razor-sharp power battle

Multiple exit polls released after the conclusion of voting in West Bengal projected a strong showing for the Bharatiya Janata Party, with several surveys indicating that the party could cross the majority mark in the 294-member Assembly and potentially unseat the ruling Trinamool Congress.


The ABP-CVoter poll, based on inputs from Chanakya Strategies, projected the BJP to win between 150 and 160 seats, placing it above the majority mark of 148. The Trinamool Congress, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, was projected to secure between 130 and 140 seats, while others were estimated to win between six and 10 seats.

The Praja Poll survey projected an even bigger advantage for the BJP, estimating the party’s tally at between 178 and 208 seats. The TMC was projected to secure between 85 and 110 seats, while others were estimated at zero to five seats.

Also Read: Bengal on the brink? Exit polls hint at the biggest political upheaval with BJP win since Mamata Banerjee toppled the Left

Poll Diary also projected an edge for the BJP, estimating the party’s tally between 142 and 171 seats. The survey projected the TMC to win between 99 and 127 seats, Congress between three and five seats, and others between five and nine seats.

Meanwhile, the Matrize exit poll projected a tighter race but still gave the BJP an advantage, estimating the party’s tally between 146 and 161 seats, while the Trinamool Congress was projected to secure between 125 and 140 seats.

Taken together, the projections pointed towards a significant BJP surge in West Bengal, suggesting that the party’s years-long push to expand its organisational base in the state may have translated into major electoral gains. However, with Bengal’s elections historically known for producing unpredictable outcomes and exit polls occasionally diverging sharply from final results, all eyes will now be on counting day to see whether the projections hold.

Only, the People’s Pulse exit poll projected a strong lead for the ruling Trinamool Congress, indicating that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s party could retain power with a comfortable majority in the 294-member Assembly. The survey projected the TMC to win between 177 and 187 seats, well above the halfway mark of 148 required to form the government.

Himanta looks set for another sweep as NDA races ahead in Assam projections

In Assam, the Axis My India exit poll indicated a decisive advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance, both in terms of seats and vote share. The survey projected the NDA to secure between 88 and 100 seats in the 126-member Assembly, comfortably above the halfway mark of 64 needed to form the government.

The vote share estimates also pointed to a significant lead for the ruling alliance. According to the exit poll, the BJP and its allies are projected to secure around 48% of the vote, while the Congress-led opposition alliance is estimated at 38%. The gap suggests that despite an aggressive campaign mounted by the opposition, the BJP may have succeeded in consolidating support across key regions of the state.

If reflected in the final results, the numbers would mark another strong performance for Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and the BJP in Assam, where the party has steadily expanded its organisational and electoral dominance over the past decade. The Congress, meanwhile, appears to have improved its presence in pockets but not enough, according to the projections, to seriously threaten the NDA’s position statewide.

Stalin ahead, but Vijay factor might scramble Tamil Nadu’s political arithmetic

After weeks of high-voltage campaigning and one of the highest voter turnouts in Tamil Nadu’s recent electoral history, exit polls released on Wednesday projected a second straight term for the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance, with Chief Minister M.K. Stalin appearing set to retain power.

Most early projections gave the DMK alliance a clear edge in the 234-member Assembly, estimating its tally at around 138 to 142 seats — comfortably above the majority mark of 118. While the ruling alliance appeared ahead statewide, the AIADMK-led front was projected to remain competitive in several pockets, particularly in northern Tamil Nadu and the politically crucial Kongu belt, preventing the contest from becoming entirely one-sided.

Actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), contesting independently across all 234 constituencies, was not projected to emerge as a major seat-winner but is expected to make an impact through vote share. Exit polls estimated the party could secure between 5% and 8% of the vote, particularly among younger and first-time voters, potentially influencing results in tightly contested seats. The final results of the Tamil Nadu Assembly election will be declared on May 4.

Axis My India, however, tells a different story, projecting the TVK-led alliance at 98–120 seats, putting actor-turned-politician Vijay's combine in a strong position and potentially making it a kingmaker, or even a government-forming force, in what is shaping up to be a genuinely three-cornered contest.

TVK's support, largely drawn from younger and first-time voters, is also expected to influence outcomes in several closely fought constituencies even where it falls short.

Congress-led UDF eyes comeback as Kerala exit polls hint at Left fatigue

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is projected to return to power in Kerala after a decade in opposition, with multiple exit polls indicating a clear edge over Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF). The projections suggest a potentially significant political shift in a state known for its fiercely competitive bipolar politics and frequent alternation of power between the two alliances.

Most surveys indicated that the LDF could lose ground after two consecutive terms in office, while the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to remain a marginal player despite an aggressive campaign aimed at expanding its footprint in the state.

According to the Matrize exit poll, the UDF is projected to win between 70 and 75 seats in the 140-member Assembly, while the LDF is estimated at 60 to 65 seats and the NDA at three to five. People’s Pulse projected a stronger performance for the Congress-led alliance, estimating the UDF’s tally between 75 and 85 seats, compared to 55 to 65 for the LDF and zero to three for the NDA.

Axis My India also projected a comfortable victory for the UDF, estimating the alliance’s tally between 78 and 90 seats. The survey projected the LDF to secure between 49 and 62 seats, while the NDA was estimated at zero to three seats.

The exit poll projections were released by television news channels and digital platforms after polling concluded, in accordance with Election Commission guidelines.

NDA leads in Puducherry, but Vijay emerges as wildcard among young voters

Exit polls for the 2026 Assembly elections in Puducherry have offered the first glimpse into a fiercely contested and politically layered battle, with alliance equations, minority consolidation and the disruptive arrival of actor-politician Joseph Vijay emerging as key themes of the election.

Early projections suggest the NDA may hold the advantage in the Union Territory, though the numbers also point to a sharply divided electorate and a growing generational split in voting behaviour.

According to the Axis My India exit poll, the NDA is projected to emerge as the leading bloc with an estimated 40% vote share, ahead of the Congress-DMK alliance at 30%. Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam-led combine is estimated at 17%, while others account for 13%, indicating a clear edge for the ruling alliance in overall vote share.

The People’s Pulse exit poll also places the NDA in a strong position, projecting 16-19 seats for the alliance — enough to potentially cross the majority mark of 16 in the 30-member Assembly. The Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) is projected to win between 10 and 12 seats.

But beneath the topline numbers, the exit polls also reveal an intriguing demographic story — one shaped by Vijay’s appeal among younger voters.

The age-wise breakdown suggests TVK+ has emerged as the preferred choice among first-time and younger voters, leading decisively in the 18-29 age bracket and reportedly securing more than 50% support among first-time voters.

The NDA, however, appears to dominate among older voters, building increasingly stronger support across age groups above 40. The alliance is projected to enjoy especially strong backing among senior citizens, with support touching 52% in the 60+ category.