Mahayuti's hour of reckoning: Can soybean and onions flip the exit poll predictions in Maharashtra

With election results for Maharashtra set to be revealed tomorrow, agrarian distress has emerged as a decisive factor in the battleground state.

Even though exit polls hint at a win by BJP and allies, past elections have shown counting day could end with a surprise result. And what may hurt these parties' chances? Onions and Soybean.

The Mahayuti alliance, already grappling with setbacks from the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, faces a potential backlash over plummeting soybean prices and falling onion rates—key issues affecting rural voters.


The ruling Mahayuti alliance comprises Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, the BJP and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP.

The discontent among farmers, especially in Vidarbha and Marathwada, could swing crucial constituencies, challenging the BJP-led coalition’s hopes of retaining power.

The Mahayuti alliance, already reeling from a poor performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections partly due to rural distress, faces renewed challenges amid anger over plummeting soybean prices.

The soybean story

Farmers are selling their soybean crops for Rs 3,800–Rs 4,000 per quintal, significantly below the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Rs 4,892 set by the Centre. Earlier this year, prices fell to a decade-low ₹2,800 per quintal. The state government had recommended an MSP of Rs 6,954, but this was not approved, fueling discontent.

“Farmers are furious, as even the declared MSP is not being honored,” Anil Ghanwat, farmer leader and member of the SC-appointed MSP committee told ET last week.

The crisis could deeply affect constituencies in the Vidarbha and Marathwada regions, where soybean cultivation dominates

Congress General Secretary Jairam Ramesh criticized Maharashtra for procuring only 3,888 metric tonnes of soybean, a mere 0.3% of the sanctioned target of 13.08 lakh metric tonnes. He contrasted this with Telangana's Congress-led government, which has already procured nearly 25,000 metric tonnes, or close to 50% of its target.

Ramesh accused the Mahayuti government of prioritizing power over farmer welfare, stating, “This is the difference between those who are committed to farmer welfare and those who are committed to their own purse and power.”

Meanwhile, Congress is rallying support, promising legal status for Minimum Support Price (MSP) based on the Swaminathan Commission's recommendations.

The BJP, sensing unrest, promised to compensate farmers for the difference between market prices and MSP. Congress, however, went further. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge vowed to raise the MSP to ₹7,000, with Rahul Gandhi adding that a bonus would also be provided.

Will onions continue to make Mahayuti weep?

During the Lok Sabha polls, falling onion prices impacted the BJP in regions like Nashik and Solapur. The Union government’s imposition of an onion export ban in December 2023 and its subsequent lifting just before elections in May 2024 failed to assuage farmers’ concerns in the Lok Sabha elections.

Adding to the frustration was the government’s removal of restrictions for Gujarat’s onion farmers in April while continuing the ban in Maharashtra. This perceived bias led to accusations of favoritism and alienated voters in regions responsible for 40% of India’s onion production.

As for the state elections, despite the central government lifting the onion export ban and reducing export duty to 20%, the benefits are feared to remain uneven.

Retail onion prices range between Rs 80-Rs 100 per kg, further pinching consumers. Meanwhile, the state government has tried to offset unrest by disbursing crop insurance, milk subsidies, and financial aid for drought-hit farmers.

However, farmer leaders highlight that critical demands, such as a complete waiver on onion export duty, remain unmet. Continued onion shortages, as unseasonal rains have disrupted the Kharif crop, has also been a concern for many.

The outcome of tomorrow’s results will determine if these promises resonate with voters. A win for Congress could signify rural support shifting away from the Mahayuti alliance, while a BJP victory would indicate that its efforts to address agrarian distress have found favour. Either way, the soybean crisis remains a potent issue shaping the political landscape in Maharashtra.