Kerala exit Poll 2026 Latest News Updates: Trouble for CM Pinarayi Vijayan and Left? Pollsters predict UDF win

The United Democratic Front (UDF), led by the Indian National Congress, is projected to wrest control of Kerala from the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) after a decade, with exit polls giving the opposition alliance a clear edge. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s LDF is expected to lose ground, while the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may struggle to make a significant impact despite an aggressive campaign.

According to Matrize, the UDF is likely to secure 70–75 seats, compared to 60–65 for the LDF and 3–5 for the NDA. People’s Pulse projects 75–85 seats for the UDF, 55–65 for the LDF, and 0–3 for the NDA. Meanwhile, Axis My India forecasts a comfortable UDF victory with 78–90 seats, while estimating 49–62 seats for the LDF and 0–3 for the NDA.

The exit poll findings were released by major television news channels and digital platforms after 6:30 pm, following the conclusion of the second phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections, in line with Election Commission guidelines.

Voter Turnout in Kerala Assembly Elections 2026

Kerala recorded a steady voter turnout of around 75% to 78% across its 140 constituencies. While slightly lower than some other states, the figures indicate strong participation in what is shaping up to be a competitive electoral battle. The contest primarily involves the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is attempting to expand its footprint in the state.

A key highlight of this year’s polling was the significant participation of women voters. Female turnout stood at an impressive 81.2%, creating the widest gender gap in voter participation among states. The gap was nearly 6 percentage points, compared to 3.2 percentage points in Puducherry and just 1.1 percentage points in Assam.

Women-centric promises also played a major role in campaign narratives. The LDF pledged to increase women’s participation in the workforce to 50%, while the UDF promised free travel for women in state-run buses.

The counting of votes for Kerala, along with other states, is scheduled for May 4.

What Happened in 2021

In the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections, exit polls consistently predicted a comfortable win for the LDF. An average of multiple surveys projected around 88 seats for the alliance.

The actual results exceeded expectations. The LDF secured 99 seats, retaining power and becoming the first alliance since 1977 to win consecutive terms in Kerala.