Gulf tensions, high fares may hit turnout of overseas voters in Kerala polls

The ongoing conflict in West Asia, rising airfares and uncertainty around flight schedules are expected to significantly reduce the number of overseas voters travelling to Kerala for the upcoming Assembly elections.

The non-resident Keralite (NoRK) population across the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is estimated at around 2 million, with annual remittances to Kerala touching nearly ₹2 lakh crore. Despite a large proportion being of voting age, Election Commission of India (ECI) data shows that only a small fraction are registered as overseas voters—just over 2.4 lakh.

Also Read: 2.2 million in Gulf, war may dent Kerala voter turnout


Turnout among registered overseas voters has historically been low. In the 2021 Assembly elections, only 3,748 of 86,371 registered overseas voters cast their votes. The 2024 Lok Sabha polls saw 2,670 of 89,800 such voters participating.

However, these numbers do not fully reflect the influence of migrant voters. Many Keralites working abroad remain registered as local voters and typically return home during elections. According to ECI sources and leaders of various pravasi organisations, more than 50,000 overseas voters usually travel back to Kerala to vote.

This time, however, that number is expected to drop sharply, with estimates suggesting that fewer than 5,000 may make the trip. Uncertainty over return flights and tight leave windows are deterring many. For instance, employees of a Dubai-based airline have been granted leave to vote but must return within 12 days, raising concerns about meeting deadlines amid volatile flight schedules.

High ticket prices are another major hurdle. Jamal Manayath of the Dubai Kerala Muslim Cultural Centre (KMCC) said that special “vote flights” typically arranged to ferry voters may not operate at scale this year, with at most one such flight likely.

Also Read: A longer Gulf conflict could squeeze remittances to India

Overseas voters often play a decisive role in closely contested constituencies such as Vadakara, Nadapuram, Malappuram, Edappal, Ponnani, Chavakkad, Nattika, Kaipamangalam, Varkala and Kollam. Even when not physically present, their influence remains significant. According to CPM leader K V Abdul Khader, each migrant voter can influence between four and eight voters within their families back home.

Political outfits and affiliated organisations have stepped up outreach efforts in Gulf countries, urging expatriates to influence voting decisions of relatives in Kerala, even if they are unable to return in person this election season.

(With inputs from TOI)