Jammu & Kashmir poll pitch: Focus on individual brilliance

Srinagar: It's still early days as J&K, after the abrogation of Article 370, prepares to fill a decade-long vacuum in the electoral space. Initial trends point to the likelihood of several independents contesting the assembly polls at a time when two former chief ministers Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti are still indecisive about their candidature as they had stated that they will not contest till statehood is restored. This makes it challenging for traditional parties to make a forceful pitch in an election which their leadership is not willing to contest. For aspiring candidates, some of whom have enjoyed 'patronage' from New Delhi over the past five years, their "unproven credibility is a major lacunae".

Traditional parties, facing the demand to bring in new generation of politicians, have to choose from "a long list of potential candidates" who have waited for a chance over the past decade. It looks like independents may emerge as the "deciding factor" in case some of them manage a rare victory or "spoil chances of other candidates", especially if there is a "hung assembly".

"This is the election of individuals who have the capacity to get 10,000 to 15,000 votes on their own. Only then the party votes can help them cross the finish line," said an aspirant who is likely to contest from Jammu. Simultaneously, BJP is making efforts to foist candidates who can eat into the vote share of the leading candidates.


"Some of the candidates bolstered by the system in New Delhi who can get 1,000 to 1,500 votes will be used by BJP to spoil the chances of other candidates. We call them 'Delhi-11' or 'LG-11'," said an opposition leader. He pointed at the small victory margin for BJP candidates in several assembly segments in the last Lok Sabha elections.

The whole exercise will be of six weeks - from August 20, when the Election Commission of India will issue the first notification calling for nominations, till October 4, when the results of the three-phase elections will be announced.

NORTH KASHMIR
It witnessed a massive political churn after the victory of Abdul Rashid Sheikh, alias Engineer Rashid - currently in Tihar Jail - in the Lok Sabha polls. Fresh faces from his party like Firdous Baba, Prince Ganai among others will fight the polls. His two sons are not eligible till now. If Rashid is released on bail in the coming days, that may surely throw a few more surprises. A few other probable contestants from north Kashmir include Raja Waqar (BJP), Bashir Chalkoo (PC), Suhail Bukhari (PDP), Hilal Lone (NC) and Imtiyaz Parray (Apni Party). Most of them are from or supported by different parties but none of them have been officially nominated. All of them may not win but will definitely impact the results. "More than truth and accuracy, it is the final emotional calls which matter for voters to decide who to vote for, especially in J&K," said a candidate.

CENTRAL KASHMIR
Tanvir Sadiq, Salman Sagar (NC), Zuhaib Yusuf (PDP), Mian Meher (NC), Ajaz Bhat (BJP) and some other new faces may get a chance. "BJP model was to replace traditional parties with their own people but they failed and now we are seeing a reverse migration of people into the traditional parties. Old structures cannot be demolished in a few years," said a former legislator. Taj Mohiuddin of Democratic Progressive Azad Party is set to rejoin Congress and Choudhary Zulfikar of Apni Party has already joined BJP.

SOUTHERN KASHMIR
Wahid Para, Iltija Mufti, Talib Hussain of PDP will fight the elections for the first time, along with several independents.

JAMMU
Ankur Sharma, who formed his own party a few years ago, may contest. Congress youth leader Neeraj Kundan may also try his luck for the first time. In Rajouri-Poonch range, Shameem Ganai of PDP, Choudhary Riyaz and a few other youngsters may fight the elections. In Bhaderwah, a young candidate, Sajid Wani of NCP, is likely to contest. Candidate selection of newly-formed parties, especially in Kashmir, like J&K Apni Party, Kashmir Nationalist People's Party and J&K United Movement will also be interesting to watch.

Jamaat-e-Islami
Another aspect to be watched is if banned Jamaat-e-Islami - which claims to be in negotiations with New Delhi to revoke the ban - will again come out to vote as the ban has not been lifted yet. "People in J&K have modest hopes as they have witnessed and lived with generations of broken promises," said another aspiring candidate from Jammu.