Why is the BJP thriving in Haryana but struggling in Kashmir despite Article 370's abrogation?

Congress started its day by distributing laddoos and jalebis at the party headquarters, buoyed by early trends that favoured them. However, their excitement was short-lived.

The trends in the Haryana Assembly elections considered one of the biggest twists in Indian politics, now favour the saffron party, which is nearing the 50-seat mark, while Congress trails at 35 seats.

What worked for BJP in Haryana despite anti-incumbancy?

The BJP is on its way to a hat trick in the Jatland, defying the exit polls that had predicted a clear majority for Congress that was trying to make a comeback, using public discontent with the current government to its advantage.


Haryana reported an approximate voter turnout of 67.90% across its 90 assembly seats.

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According to a TOI report, most Yadav votes were expected to favour the BJP, while Jat voters seemed to lean toward Congress. However, this time the saffron party made inroads in Jat-dominated constituencies.

Political analyst Satish Tyagi noted that OBC communities have shown a growing inclination toward the BJP over the past decade.

For Congress now, many questions are being raised: Was it smart to rely entirely on Bhupinder Singh Hooda? How did the public rivalry between Hooda and Kumari Selja for the Chief Minister's position affect things? Were there issues in candidate selection, given that Hooda's critics claim he dominated ticket distribution? And was the party too overconfident and complacent?

Haryana’s current CM, Nayab Saini, who is leading from Ladwa, also tipped the scales in favor of the BJP. The BJP’s decision to appoint 54-year-old Saini as the 11th Chief Minister of Haryana was unexpected. With the appointment of Saini, the saffron party tried to make the Chief Minister's Office (CMO) more accessible as Khattar was seen as a dominant figure in the state’s political scene.

Saini's period of active governance has been brief, spanning just two-and-a-half months due to the imposition of the model code of conduct for the upcoming polls. During this time, Saini made several efforts to reach voters, including convening Cabinet meetings and announcing benefits for various communities, such as backward classes, employees, and traders. A considerable number of jobs were advertised towards the end of his tenure, showcasing his focus on voter engagement ahead of the election.

Saini's focus on providing benefits to the backward community has led to perceptions that he primarily represents the BC community, rather than all of Haryana. This strategy was followed to consolidate non-Jat votes, with the expectation to split Jat votes among the Congress, Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and Jannayak Janta Party (JJP).

What didn’t work for BJP in the Kashmir Valley?

The BJP's vision of "Naya Kashmir" did not translate into electoral gains in the valley. When the central government revoked Article 370 in August 2019, removing Jammu and Kashmir's special status and dividing it into Union Territories, the region faced unprecedented restrictions for several months.

As conditions started to improve, the Narendra Modi government presented its vision for a "Naya Kashmir," promising development, jobs, and security. However, there was little effort to address the deep sense of loss among the people regarding the elimination of their special status.

The BJP's "Naya Kashmir" security strategy included a policy of collective responsibility and punishment, resulting in public dissatisfaction.

Although strong measures against terrorism, separatism, and stone-pelting were generally supported, many residents felt their right to free speech was being stifled. The widespread belief that fear is being employed to suppress dissent has hindered the BJP's ability to gain electoral support in the Valley.