Exit polls got it wrong again? Just look at Haryana's sudden mood swing

Haryana election results: Have the exit polls got it wrong yet again? Haryana just swung the exact opposite way to what was predicted.

The counting initially seemed to favour Congress and was largely in line with the exit poll forecasts. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) initially trailed, but a couple of hours into counting, it surged past the Congress party. The latest data shows the BJP ahead in 49 out of 90 seats, while Congress is leading in 34 seats (data of around mid-day).

Haryana this time voted in a single phase on October 5. Ahead of the results day, a good many exit polls had forecast a Congress victory in Haryana which saw a voter turnout of 67.90%. The BJP, however, had claimed that it would come back to power for a third consecutive term.


For much of the initial phase, it was a seesaw battle between the Congress and the BJP, with the saffron party just ahead of the Congress after about two hours of counting of votes, ECI data.

In the opening hours, Congress members celebrated with crackers and sweets at their Delhi office. However, as the BJP gained the lead, the celebrations moved to the BJP headquarters, where snacks and laddoos were shared with media personnel.

At the Congress office, the mood became more subdued, but supporters remain hopeful. Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Shelja from Congress maintain confidence about their party's chances, with Hooda stating, "The Congress is winning in Haryana."

If the current numbers hold, the BJP will secure a third consecutive term in Haryana, marking its best performance in the state. In the 2019 Haryana Assembly election, BJP won 40 seats, Congress secured 31, and the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) got 10. The BJP formed the government with JJP's support, but the alliance has since ended, and the JJP is facing a setback in the current elections.

One, however, needs to keep in mind that these are still early hours and many rounds of counting still remain.

The counting for all the 90 assembly seats began at 93 centres in 22 districts of Haryana amid tight security. While the saffron party is seeking to retain power for a third consecutive term, the Congress is eyeing a comeback in the state after a long break of 10 years.

The key players in the race are the BJP, the Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party, INLD-BSP and JJP-Azad Samaj Party. Despite the many players, the real highlight in Haryana is the direct fight between the BJP and the Congress in many seats.

This time, a total of 1,031 candidates, including 464 Independents and 101 women, are in race for the state's 90 seats.

In the 2019 Haryana Assembly elections, the BJP had won 40 seats, while Congress had got 31 seats, and the Dushyant Chautala-led JJP won 10 seats. After the results, BJP had formed an alliance with JJP to establish the state government.

However, their alliance ended six months ago when Nayab Singh Saini became the new Chief Minister of Haryana.

In the recently held 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP faced a significant setback, winning only 5 out of 10 seats in the state -- a result that raised hopes for Congress of a favourable outcome in these assembly polls.