Gujarat polls: BJP fights to overcome AAP march and Congress hold

The BJP is seeking to retain its bastion since 1995 with Modi magic and by striking the right caste balance in every seat. The last assembly polls gave an actual fright to the party, reducing its strength to 99, just seven seats more than the 92-mark. There is no negative sentiment against the BJP this time –– there was a massive Patidar and OBC-driven mobilisation against the party in 2017. But there are apprehensions over the BJP’s falling victory margins in the last two decades.

Modi Factor
The Modi factor is not just a swing factor in Gujarat, but the most dominant aspect of BJP’s campaign. The campaign pitch is centred around the PM, his vision, particularly on the national security front, his repeated visits to the state, his efforts to build the country’s image world-wide, and his pan India acceptance as a strong, decisive leader who delivers.


The campaign highlights pictures of flyovers, new housing projects and industrial parks that have come up in the state in the last two decades. Young voters have no memory of the Congress rule, BJP leaders claim. It is evident that the Central office still holds control over the state, as was seen in the Gujarat cabinet change last year and the central rescue agencies helping out during the recent Morbi tragedy.

Since March this year, the PM has been visiting Gujarat frequently, travelling to over 30 districts to launch new projects. Every time he invoked the Gujarati pride (asmita), saying it was the people who built the state and hailed the new slogan,“Aa Gujarat, mein banavyu chhe (I have made this Gujarat), displaying his moral ownership of the state.

Caste, Community, Hindutva
Caste and community equations play an important role. While the Congress campaign is centred around non-Patidar communities, mainly big and small OBC groups, Dalits, STs and Muslims, the AAP is targeting the resentment among the Patidars and the poor by promising free healthcare and electricity.

Hindutva remains an important aspect, even for AAP. Party chief Arvind Kejriwal talked of currency notes having pictures of Hindu deities, and has promised free char dham yatra and free trips to Ram temple. Patidars remain the BJP’s focus. While it replaced 38 of its MLAs, including 12 of those who had won with high margins, it has retained many Patidar faces.

In Surat and Saurashtra, AAP has roped in leaders from the Patidar agitation. The BJP has accommodated many of the smaller communities such as goswami, prajapati, apart from dominant ones such as Ahirs and Kolis, and STs, and even defectors from Congress, focussing only on winnability. The gap between the Congress and BJP narrowed from 10% vote share in 1995 to 7.5% in 2017, with the number of seats reducing from 76 seats in 1995 to just 22 seats in 2017, showing that caste plays a significant role in many seats.

Low-spirited Congress, aggressive AAP
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's absence from Gujarat has been much talked about. The party has failed to stop at least a dozen of its MLAs from quitting the party, including its own working presidents.

Price rise and unemployment remain important election issues. After 1990, there was a triangular fight, with the AAP seeking to take the spot of the Congress and threatening to dent the BJP votes. In the past, stalwarts such as Chimanbhai Patel, Keshubhai Patel and Shankarsinh Vaghela have experimented with a triangular contest, and so have regional players BSP, SP, Shiv Sena, NCP And JD(U) but failed to make an impact.

Critics say Gujarati voters might not fall for AAP’s freebie promises.