Modi faces first major electoral test after historic tax cuts

Voters in India’s capital went to the polls Wednesday in a crucial test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose party has failed to wrestle control of Delhi from a small but formidable rival for over a decade now.
The Aam Aadmi Party, which means the Common Man’s Party, has been in power since 2015, and is widely credited with overhauling education and medical care in the capital region. It faces stiff competition from Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, which is riding a wave of popularity with the middle class after making record tax cuts in the country’s annual budget last week.

Polls opened at 7 a.m. local time and four hours later the turnout stood at about 20%, according to data from the Election Commission of India. Ballots are being cast to elect candidates for 70 seats in the local assembly. Exit polls are expected to be released after voting ends at 6 p.m. Wednesday, with the counting taking place on Feb. 8.


Both the BJP and AAP are betting on cash handouts, particularly for women, and other freebies to help them win the election. For the past decade, the incumbent party has made welfare measures the focal point of its administration, capturing the support of low-income groups in a city with extreme wealth disparity. However, AAP’s leader Arvind Kejriwal, who made a name for himself as an anti-corruption crusader, has been embroiled in bribery allegations for several years now, impacting the party’s ability to govern.

“BJP has gained,” while the perception of AAP has been “dented,” said Sanjay Kumar, a professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, a Delhi-based think tank.

Modi government’s tax relief on Saturday will help his party make inroads in the capital region, which it hasn’t won since 1998. At an election rally on Sunday in Delhi, Modi said “the entire middle class is saying that in India’s history, this is the most middle-class friendly budget,” a remark that was accompanied with loud chants of his name by the crowd.

According to Kumar, “Delhi is a city where middle-class people are in a very large number,” so the tax cuts will “certainly have some impact.” However, it may not bring about a significant change in voting pattern as that section of the society is already “tilted in favor of BJP,” he said.

If the BJP pulls off Delhi, it would be yet another electoral success for the party in the last four months after winning the states of Haryana and Maharashtra, helping it recover from the setback in national elections last year. If Kejriwal prevails, it would mean that support for his welfare agenda is still enough to win elections, despite the damage to reputation his party has suffered in recent months.

For the last 10 years, the two parties have been in the midst of a bitter feud, which has impacted governance in the capital.

The AAP has been under pressure amid allegations of impropriety in a liquor license distribution case. Multiple leaders of the party, including Kejriwal and the former deputy chief minister, Manish Sisodia, have spent months in prison without trial. In September, Kejriwal resigned from his post as Delhi’s chief minister, vowing to return this year.

The party has consistently denied the allegations and described them as a political witch-hunt by the BJP-led government that controls the country’s federal investigative agencies. If AAP wins, analysts say, the tension between the two parties is likely to remain intact, and could likely lead to administrative inertia in the capital.

Though the government in Delhi is drawn from an elected assembly, its powers are restricted. It doesn’t control the police and a federal government-appointed official controls most of the administrative appointments and expenditure.

“I don’t think BJP ever moves on. I don’t think that’s the modus operandi. Especially if there’s a big win for the Aam Aadmi party, they’re more likely to be aggressive,” said Neelanjan Sircar, professor at Ahmedabad University.