Delhi elections: 17 close contests from 2020 may shape the national capital's 2025 polls

One-fourth of the assembly constituencies, which witnessed close contests in the 2020 polls registering victory margins of less than 10,000, hold the key to Delhi elections.

Even though the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) swept the 2020 assembly elections winning 62 of the 70 seats, about 17 constituencies witnessed a very close contest with victory margins ranging between 680 and about 10,000 votes. Of these 17 segments, four were won by the BJP with a slim margin and 13 by AAP.

As the BJP hopes to cash in on the anti-incumbency against AAP, which has been in power in Delhi for a decade, the ruling party is focusing on these segments which were difficult to manage even during the party's "wave" in 2020.

Political game plan

In 2020, BJP had won eight assembly constituencies and half of them were on very slim margins in Karawal Nagar (8,223), Gandhi Nagar (6,079), Vishwas Nagar (3,207) and Badarpur (3,719 votes). This time, BJP has changed its candidates in three of the four constituencies.

A senior BJP functionary, who did not wish to be identified, told ET, "Our candidates lost by a very small margin. We are aware that a strong candidate this time along with anti-incumbency factors can easily swing these. This is why candidates have been changed."

Karawal Nagar MLA Mohan Singh Bisht has been moved to Mustafabad constituency and former AAP leader Kapil Mishra has been fielded by the BJP here. In Gandhi Nagar, former Congress minister Arvinder Singh Lovely has been fielded instead of current MLA Anil Kumar Bajpai. Incidentally, Lovely had fought on a Congress ticket in 2020 and was one of the three Congress candidates who did not lose their deposits. Badarpur MLA Ramvir Singh Bidhuri had won the Lok Sabha election last year and has been replaced by Narayan Datt Sharma.

The AAP has dropped nine of the 13 MLAs who won with slim margins last time. "If these MLAs won with very small margins when there was no anti-incumbency and there was an AAP wave, this election may be difficult for them," said a party source. In Kirari, MLA Rituraj Govind, who won by 5,654 votes, has been replaced by BJP's 2020 candidate Anil Jha, who is with the AAP now. Similarly, in Chattarpur seat where AAP won by 3,720 votes, BJP and AAP have swapped candidates. Even in Shahdara (where the victory margin was 5,294 votes), the two parties have swapped candidates.