ULFA-I alliance threatens Assam elections: Security think tank warns of deadly attacks

Guwahati: The Centre for North East India Security Studies (CNEISS), a security think tank based in New Delhi, which had earlier warned of impending attacks by the United Liberation Front of Asom (Independent) (ULFA-I) aimed at disrupting the forthcoming Assam assembly elections. on Monday again cautioned that even deadlier attacks could occur if the emerging alliance between ULFA-I, the tribal armed group from Bangladesh’s Chittagong Hill Tracts — the Parbattya Chattagram Jana Samhati Samiti (PCJSS), the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), and the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) is not effectively addressed.

On March 22, ULFA (I) attacked the 4th Assam Police Commando Battalion camp at Jagun in Tinsukia using rocket-propelled grenades, injuring four Assam Police commandos.

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“The first major attack on the Assam Police since 2021 by ULFA (I) indicates a shift in its policy following a two-day marathon meeting held from December 9-11, 2025, at Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh among ULFA, PCJSS, ARSA, and RSO, allegedly facilitated by the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI) of Bangladesh and Pakistan’s ISI. More deadly attacks leading up to the April 9 elections can be expected if security is not tightened in the state,” stated Swapan Debbarma of CNEISS.

“Among the newly formed alliance of anti-India forces, the free use of Indian soil by the PCJSS— whose president, Santu Larma, has been serving as Chairman of the CHT Regional Council for the last 28 years without elections, reportedly as an asset of DGFI — poses the most serious threat to India’s security. India has failed to assess the security threat from the DGFI-linked PCJSS, allowing it to reportedly establish 15 camps in India. These include 10 camps in Mizoram at Tipperghat village, Salmur village, Malsuri village, and Nunsuri village under Lunglei district; Borapansury village, Lodisora village, Nakukchhera, and Devasora South village under Lawngtlai district; Rajivnagar village under Mamit district; and five camps in Tripura at Kamalkha (Korollyachari), Mog Para, Sonamura, and Garithanahola villages under Dhalai district, as well as Mitingachari village in North Tripura district,” Debbarma further stated.

Citing an international conspiracy to destabilise India’s northeast, the CNEISS stated that the PCJSS was reportedly supplied with a large cache of modern arms in the last week of February 2026 by armed groups from Myanmar. These groups were allegedly trained by American mercenary Mathew Aaron Van Dyke and Ukrainian nationals who were arrested by the National Investigation Agency on March 13, 2026. PCJSS is said to have transferred these arms from Paletwa in Myanmar to Thekamukh on the Mizoram-Bangladesh border via Mizoram.

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Earlier, on February 26, 2026, a PCJSS representative at Cox’s Bazar, Bidhayak Chakma, reportedly procured 50 sophisticated weapons from Rohingya armed groups for onward transfer to create disturbances in the northeast.

An alert has been sounded across the state following the attack. In the past, ULFA (I), also known as the anti-talk faction of ULFA, has targeted political leaders during election periods.

A senior intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, “This is a desperate attempt to make its presence felt. ULFA(I) has a cadre strength of over 150. However, given that it is election time, we have issued alerts as the outfit may attempt similar offensives in the future.”