Rebels and alliances shaping lower Assam election battle

Nalbari: In Lower and Southern Assam, which together account for around 45 seats, a multi-cornered contest is taking shape for the assembly polls. BJP and its ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) are contesting against Congress-led alliance and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), making the contests triangular or multi-cornered. In two constituencies - Goalpara East and Gauripur - Congress and its ally Raijor Dal are engaged in a friendly contest.

The divide along religious lines, recent eviction drives and their victims, along with BJP's pitch of protecting civilization, are some of the key issues in these constituencies. The issue of 'doubtful' voters is also playing a significant role. The Assam Agitation, the six-year-long anti-foreigners movement (1979-1985), had its origins in Barpeta in Lower Assam. Following the delimitation exercise of 2023, the number of Muslim-dominated seats has declined from 29 to 22. AGP, which is contesting 26 seats, has fielded as many as 13 Muslim candidates.

Considered an AGP bastion, the Bongaigaon seat is facing the heat of a rebel candidate. Dipti Mayee Choudhury, wife of MP Phani Bhushan Choudhury, is contesting from Bongaigaon and is an MLA from the seat. Phani Bhushan Choudhury, an eight-time MLA from Bongaigaon, won the Barpeta Lok Sabha seat in the 2024 elections, and in the subsequent by-election, Dipti retained the seat. Chakradhar Das, a ticket aspirant from BJP, quit the party and is now contesting as an Independent. Congress has fielded Girish Baruah from the seat.


In another constituency in Bongaigaon district, Srijangram, the issue of 'doubtful' voters is particularly significant. There are 94,277 doubtful voters in Assam, a substantial number of whom are Hindu Bengalis. A "doubtful voter" refers to individuals disenfranchised due to lack of proper citizenship credentials and barred from contesting elections or casting their votes. In the Nalbari seat, once a hotbed of insurgency, BJP candidate and state minister Jayanta Malla Baruah is locked in a bitter contest with former MLA Ashok Sharma. Sharma left BJP and is now contesting on a Congress ticket.

Over the past five years, the Assam government has carried out a series of eviction drives, claiming to have recovered over 1.5 lakh bighas of land and evicted more than 50,000 families from government and forest lands.

Political analysts believe that those affected by these evictions will play a crucial role in determining the outcome in 10 to 13 seats in Lower Assam. "Vigilante groups recently threatened Miya Muslim labourers to leave Upper Assam, where many of them were working. A large number of these people are voters in Lower Assam, and this could influence the outcome in several seats," analysts said.

The AIUDF has fielded candidates in 30 constituencies. Aminul Islam, MLA from Mankachar, recently resigned from AIUDF and joined Congress. AIUDF has fielded Abdul Salam Shah from the seat while Congress has nominated Mohibur Rahman. The AGP has fielded Zabed Islam from the seat. AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi, campaigned for AIUDF in Assam, which can sway some voters in favour of AIUDF.