Assam Exit Poll Results 2026: Can Himanta Biswa Sarma lead BJP to another win?

Assam’s political heat has surged as exit polls hint at a familiar outcome, yet another possible win for the BJP-led NDA. While the final verdict will only come on counting day, these predictions suggest that Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma could be on course to secure a second consecutive term. With high voter turnout, shifting alliances, and intense face-offs across constituencies, the Assam election is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched contests in the Northeast.

Exit Polls Point to BJP Lead in Assam

Major exit polls have given the BJP-led NDA a clear advantage in Assam:

• Axis My India: BJP projected at 88–100 seats, Congress at 24–36 seats
• JVC Exit Poll: BJP at 88–101 seats, Congress at 23–33 seats

Other parties, including AIUDF and smaller regional groups, are expected to win only a handful of seats.

High Voter Turnout Boosts Political Stakes

This election saw a voter turnout of around 85%, one of the highest in recent Assam elections. CM Himanta Biswa Sarma described the turnout as a sign of strong democratic participation across communities. He also pointed out that both urban and rural areas, including traditionally low-turnout regions, showed increased enthusiasm this time. Higher turnout is often seen as a key factor that can either reinforce the ruling party’s base or signal anti-incumbency, but these indications suggest the BJP may have benefited from it.

Himanta Biswa Sarma’s Strategy: Governance + Identity Politics

A big part of BJP’s confidence comes from CM Himanta Biswa Sarma’s political strategy, which combines governance delivery with strong identity-based messaging.

1. Development push on the ground
The BJP campaign has heavily focused on:

• Infrastructure development (roads, railways, airports)
• Industrial investments like semiconductor projects
• Welfare schemes, especially for women and youth
• Recruitment drives in government jobs

The party has tried to position itself as a “delivery-first” government.

2. Identity and “jati, mati, bheti” narrative

A core political message remains:

• Protection of Assamese identity
• Safeguarding land and indigenous rights
• Control over illegal infiltration concerns

3. High voter mobilisation strategy

Sarma has also focused on:

• Ground-level mobilisation across communities
• Outreach to tea garden workers and rural voters
• Strengthening BJP’s coalition with regional allies

Sarma claimed ahead of the results that the NDA could even cross the “triple-digit” mark.

Congress Alliance Tries a Comeback

The opposition Congress, backed by a six-party alliance, is trying to rebuild its presence in Assam politics.

Its strategy revolves around:

• Anti-incumbency sentiment
• Allegations of uneven development
• Minority and regional consolidation
• Leadership projection of Gaurav Gogoi

However, exit polls suggest the alliance is still significantly behind the BJP in seat share.

The Big Face-Off: Sarma vs Gaurav Gogoi Narrative

Even though elections are fought across constituencies, Assam’s political spotlight has largely focused on the symbolic rivalry between:

• Himanta Biswa Sarma: BJP’s chief strategist and current CM
• Gaurav Gogoi: Congress’s rising face and challenger

This contest represents a broader question: whether Assam politics will continue under BJP dominance or see a meaningful opposition revival.

Key Issues That Shaped the Campaign

Several major issues influenced voter sentiment this time:

Infiltration and citizenship debate
A long-standing and emotionally charged issue in Assam politics, still central to BJP messaging.

Eviction drives
The government’s crackdown on encroachment was praised by supporters but criticised by opposition parties.

Welfare vs inequality debate
While BJP highlighted development schemes, Congress argued that benefits were unevenly distributed.

Cultural and emotional issues
Public sentiment around cultural identity and high-profile cases, including the Zubeen Garg matter, also played a role in campaign narratives.

Past Trends Still Favour BJP Consolidation

Looking at recent elections:

• BJP won 60 seats in 2016 and 2021
• It has remained the largest party but relied on allies for majority
• Vote share has steadily increased over time

What Happens Next?

All eyes are now on counting day. If exit polls are accurate, Assam may once again see:

• A continued BJP-led government
• Strong role for regional allies
• A weakened but persistent opposition presence

For Himanta Biswa Sarma, the bigger political goal is clear, converting BJP’s vote base into a standalone majority and tightening the party’s grip on Assam’s evolving political landscape.