Government downgrades monsoon forecast, stokes fears of drought

NEW DELHI: The government has downgraded this year's monsoon forecast to 88 per cent of the long-term average, Earth Sciences Minister Harsh Vardhan said on Tuesday, raising fears of a drought in the country where nearly half of farmland lack irrigation facilities.

The government had in April forecast monsoon rains at 93 per cent of the long-term average. The forecast has an error margin of 4 percentage points.

Earlier in the day, RBI governor Raghuram Rajan said the biggest uncertainty ahead was the outcome of the annual monsoon, after the rains missed their normal start date, along with subsequent government action.

"Each path of the sequence is fraught with uncertainty. So we need to figure out how this plays out. And, clearly government action is very important," Rajan said after the central bank's policy meeting on Tuesday.

This year's monsoon may arrive on India's southern Kerala coast in the next five days as the rains have missed their normal start date of June 1, weather officials said on Monday.

The annual rainy season is vital for India as half its cropland lacks irrigation. The farm sector accounts for 15 percent of India's $2 trillion economy.

The rains support two-thirds of India's 1.25 billion population who live in rural areas and rely on farming.

After arriving over the Kerala coast, the monsoon starts its four-month long season.

"We hope conditions will become favourable for the monsoon onset over the Kerala coast on around June 5," said B.P. Yadav, director of the India Meteorological Department ( IMD).

The monsoon arrived last year on June 6, a day after the forecast and five days after the usual date, and the season ended with deficient rains that trimmed grain output.

The farm ministry has put in place contingency plans for about 580 districts to meet any exigencies arising due to a delay in the annual rains.