Commodity prices slide to pre-Ukraine war levels

Soft commodity prices slumped back to pre-Ukraine conflict levels after an intense first half of 2022 dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

Crop items such as wheat is down 26.4 per cent, corn lower by 14.5 per cent, and sugar by 9.4 per cent. Cotton futures hit a 3-month low on demand concerns. While raw sugar hit a 6-week low on recession fears.

Earlier, the Department of Food Public Distribution hinted at the cooling of edible oil prices as a result of softening of international rates and government’s timely intervention.


According to government statistics, since the beginning of this month, the average retail prices of packaged edible oils have decreased marginally nationwide, with the exception of groundnut oil, which are ranging between Rs 150 and 190 per kg.

This reduction in commodity prices is estimated to benefit manufacturing by cutting input costs. Additionally, it'll aid in reducing overall inflation.

Ever since the Russia-Ukraine conflict ended in March, the world economy has struggled with multi-decade high inflation, sluggish growth, lingering geopolitical tensions and sanctions, high costs for crude oil and other commodities, and supply chain bottlenecks associated to COVID-19. The world's financial conditions have tightened, posing dangers to the prospects for growth and financial stability, and global financial markets have been shaken by turmoil amid mounting stagflation concerns.

Retail inflation in India was 7.04 per cent in May, higher above the RBI's tolerance level of 2 to 6 per cent.

On the assumption of a normal monsoon in 2022 and average crude oil price (Indian basket) of $105 per barrel, the RBI forecasts inflation at 6.7 per cent in 2022-23, with Q1 at 7.5 per cent; Q2 at 7.4 per cent; Q3 at 6.2 per cent; and Q4 at 5.8 per cent, with risks evenly balanced.